Where are Mitsotakis, Kasselakis, Androulakis, Koutsoubas winning or losing – 2024-03-30 02:25:15

People or politics? Big question. Contrary to what is now the case in the majority of (western) EU countries, where voters’ choices are mostly based on positions and strategies, the parties of the Greek scene maintain -in one way or another- a strong leadership character.

Possibly not to the extent of the past, but in any case the face still has a catalytic effect on the outcome of the ballot box, traditionally defining governments and major electoral victories. So the poll question of suitability for the prime ministership of the country is not outdated or misplaced. It collects value, offers conclusions and captures in numbers the corresponding appeal to the body of voters.

Kyriakos Mitsotakis is by far the most suitable

The “man to man” of the political leaders highlights Kyriakos Mitsotakis as the undisputed winner for years, even if there are more negative opinions that he collects individually in the measurements from time to time.

With an approval rating hovering at the high limit of 40% in the months following his renewal of the Maximos Palace term, the Greek prime minister is constantly moving above New Democracy’s opinion polls and, it seems, his own popularity within the electorate. body is due to the containment of government attrition combined with the consistently long distance from the competition.

“Nobody” and single-digit opponents

As a unique and persistent threat in this period, which they necessarily attribute to Maximos and Piraeus, is the -always legendary- “No one”. In his face, after all, the revulsion at the established scene, the disappointment with the faces and the indifference for confirming or overturning the status quo are simultaneously reflected. People distance themselves from all politicians and express their protest with denial (which also leads to abstinence).

On the contrary, both Stefanos Kasselakis and Nikos Androulakis remain only his potential competitors, nothing more, given that their own percentages of suitability for the leadership of the country appear, on a permanent basis, at the 10% mark – sometimes a little higher and sometimes under that. It is a recurring phenomenon with no reversal tendencies. The condition seems fixed and unchanging, almost “haunted” for both.

Where political leaders win and lose

It is reasonable for party officials to study and analyze the numbers behind the numbers. That is, the qualitative elements that arise every time. Just as it happens with factional gatherings, it makes sense and is of particular interest to the staff offices to place each leader on the political map, according to the findings of the most recent of the monthly polls by the Metron Analysis for Mega.

The center is positive for Androulakis

For Harilaou Trikoupis, let’s say it is admittedly encouraging that Nikos Androulakis seems to be superior in the positive opinions of those who declare “centrist voters” compared to Kyriakos Mitsotakis, Stefanos Kasselakis and Dimitris Koutsoubas. The “plus” gathered by the president of the PASoK in a fluid space that always moves and influences the outcome of elections exceeds, if only slightly, 50% (51%), while each of the remaining four is placed lower.

The vote for Mitsotakis

The prime minister’s popularity at 49% is logically explained since he has not only targeted, but seems to have already conquered this audience. “The dominance of Kyriakos Mitsotakis in this area is now clear. It is something that has been seen both in the result of the national elections with the primaries of centrist candidates in large regions such as Attica and in all the current polls for the European elections”, points out Giorgos Trapalis, a data analyst from Good Affairs.

Over time, Mr. Mitsotakis “builds” an even more modern profile of a politician, without this attempt detracting from the “positive views” he still gathers in the center-right space. It is the space in which the ND leader sweeps, reaching 80%.

A percentage much higher than that of the far right tank, in which it falls to 63%. This small drop is inevitable as a reflection of the dissatisfaction expressed by a part of the popular right-wing component in ND circles for initiatives that, for these voters, are not consistent with its past. The prime minister is trying to balance these losses with a similar agenda on national issues, immigration, etc. so as to minimize the losses he will have in the European elections.

However, “a loss of 7-9 points for the ND is explainable since in every electoral process in the past, the ruling party or the party that entered the government (SYRIZA 2014, ND 2019 or even PASOK in 1981) received the ballot of the European elections approximately 20-25% less than the corresponding national elections”, explains the partner of Vima and Neos.

The high rate of Kuchumba

Surprisingly, Dimitris Koutsoumbas is second with 48% of positive opinions among center-right voters and with double-digit differences even from Androulakis (35%) – Kasselakis (18%). He is recognized and credited, most obviously, for his unwavering stance, that he has a position and defends it. Such popularity the gen. secretary of the KKE does not even have it in centrist voters, although it holds a remarkable size (43%), although it does not reap it at the moment of crisis.

According to Mr. Trapalis, “it is not a lie that Mr. Koutsoubas always gathers positive opinions, as he has shown that he can be more progressive as a leader using his rhetoric and communication policy as a weapon.” “It’s just”, as he underlines, “after the Regional Elections, his initial momentum seems to be stopped because there are many parties on the left and this retreat deprives him of the right to reach higher.” Certainly, however, the percentage of positive opinions about Mr. Koutsouba also reflects the rise of the KKE”.

Kasselakis bets on the rally

Findings to the left of center inevitably find Kyriakos Mitsotakis in last place of the two sources of voters (center-left, left). The prime minister is “persona non grata” for the majority of the space, with the result that his penetration with a positive impact is inversely proportional to the others.

Despite this, it appears that Stefanos Kasselakis is mainly the loser, who does not win any of the “bras de fer” with the rest. Especially in the center-left space, the popularity rate of the president of SYRIZA seems to be quite low and far behind both N. Androulakis and D. Koutsoubas.

The PaSoK leader prevails in another personal duel as his popularity soars to 56% among centre-left voters. But why the Cretan politician is not able to capitalize on all this dynamic that is depicted in the center-center-left is a fundamental question.

A good opinion does not mean a vote

Giorgos Trapalis clarifies in this section that “the question is never a comparative one. Each participant in the survey has an opinion about each leader separately. The same person can have a good opinion of everyone. But the fact that he has a good opinion of any president does not mean that he already votes for him. He will only choose one of the politicians at the end of the day. Let’s say the centrists may divide their positive opinions between Androulakis and Mitsotakis, but when they finally go to the polls it seems that they mostly prefer Mr. Mitsotakis. Or if they leave the New Democracy, it does not appear that they are heading to PaSoK, which no longer comes to answer as a center party”.

According to the experienced data analyst, it is indicative that “the movements of ND centrist voters do not seem to go to SYRIZA OR PaSoK, but to the party of Mr. Loverdos – a vote that does not cause direct damage to Kyriakos Mitsotakis. On the contrary, larger outflows are found in the far right of the SW, where a significant part is directed to Kyriakos Velopoulos”.

Mr. Androulakis leaves St. Kasselakis at -18% (56% vs. 38%) apparently surpassing the KKE’s communication c.c in positive opinions by two percentage points (54%). And if D. Koutsoubas regains ground in the purely left-wing audience of the electorate, touching the “Mistotak” percentages at the opposite end with 67%, the leader of SYRIZA covers less than half the distance that separates him from his counterpart in PaSoK and he does not balance it in his favor.

The (not satisfactory) 38% in the center-left space is the ceiling of Stefanos Kasselakis in this measurement, slightly higher even than Mr. Mitsotakis (+11%), with more suffocating and extremely worrying from there on just 25% among voters in the center whom he would very much like to approach and persuade to follow him. There he lags with a “double score” of both Nikos Androulakis and the current prime minister, while Dimitris Koutsoubas leaves him far behind.

However, the president of SYRIZA usually appears a little higher than both of them in the suitability of the prime ministership. What seems to keep him afloat is the fact that those who speak positively of him intend to vote for him no matter what – they are not wavering. In other words, the gathering of those around his person is great, a condition that in the final outcome is likely to yield more profits.

Besides “the negative opinions about parties that are centrist are important, but for the parties that move to the left or right of the center the positive index of their leaders is much more important”as the data analyst from Good Affairs concludes.