Despite the international increase in the price of wheat due to the war in Ukraine, the Argentine cereal campaign is going through the Worst time in over a decade. The drought in a large part of the agricultural area is delaying planting operations and for this reason the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange reduced the projection of the planted area by 100,000 hectares, standing at 6.4 million hectares.
“However, if the current scenario persists, this could extend to other regions of the center and east of the agricultural area, provoking new corrections of the sowing projection”, indicated the entity in its last Weekly Agricultural Outlook.
Worldwide, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) lowered production projections of 1 million tons. In the case of India, production fell by 2.5 million tons due to the heat wave in that country and exports would go from 6.5 to only 2 million tons to ensure domestic supply.
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According to the professor of the Center for Agribusiness and Food of the Austral University, Dante Romano, “if we continue without precipitation as the forecast indicates, we could see additional cuts. With 10 million tons already authorized for export, and domestic consumption of some 6.5 million, the balance of supply and demand is starting to get complicated”.
Romano indicates that in a context of less fertilization and climate that does not accompany, “we could see lower yields and this will end up taking production closer to 18 million tons. There’s no room left for mistakes in a very tight market also at an international level”.
the time to come
From the Rosario Stock Exchange they indicate that the entry of another front of cold and dry air removes the possibility of rains over the core region in the coming days. Probabilistic models show that we will have to wait until the second half of June to receive any rain relief. But the trend continues to favor the extreme northeast of the country.
“As if that were not enough, the influence of three consecutive periods of cooling of the Central Equatorial Pacific in Niña levels. The current condition of the profiles means that the current one is probably the fine campaign that begins with the worst edaphic moisture conditions.”
