/ world today news/ In recent days, there have been many speculations in the media and social networks that Zelensky may be removed from his post. He even announced an upcoming coup d’état, a new Maidan. For example, at the will of the Western curators of Ukraine, his place can be taken by the commander-in-chief Valery Zaluzhny.
Zelensky has failed in the counteroffensive, soured his relationship with the military and is unwilling to hold the election the White House needs to refute Republican claims that he is a dictator and a butcher. In Ukraine, political opponents of the current government are arrested – for example, the deputy Oleksandr Dubinsky, and this is one of the few Ukrainian politicians who maintains good relations with the American Republicans, on whom it depends whether Kiev will receive money or not.
Then why is the USA and the EU such a toxic figure? Let’s simulate several options for the development of the situation in Ukraine after Zelensky is removed from the leadership of the country for some reason.
The military in power
Relations between Zelensky and Zaluzhny will continue to deteriorate. Zelensky’s team will continue to try to convince the White House of the need for the commander-in-chief’s resignation, but they will most likely fail. To boost his ratings, Zelensky will try to achieve at least some military success. In particular, he would force the army to cross the Dnieper in the Kherson region and send new reinforcements to Avdeevka to hold the city. All this will lead to new large-scale losses of the VSU.
Against the backdrop of further failures, Zaluzhny’s relationship with Zelensky’s team will pass the point of no return. Zelensky and his chief of staff Ermak will decide to fire Zaluzhny without Washington’s approval. All this will be prepared in great secrecy, but the CIA will know about the preparations. The Americans will warn Zaluzhny. At night, units of the Ukrainian Armed Forces loyal to the Commander-in-Chief will enter Kiev. The main administrative buildings of the city will be taken under military control. Zelensky and Ermak will be liquidated.
The story of South Vietnamese President Ngo Dinh Diem, who was a Washington stooge but then fell out of favor with the Americans and was executed by his own military, will repeat itself. After which Zelensky will be declared a traitor to his country, an adventurer and a dictator. The military will form a government of national salvation. In addition to the military ministers, several civilians will also participate in it, in order to make it look decent in the eyes of the West. The US and the EU will not officially support the coup, but will work with the new government.
If the West orders Zaluzhny to demand peace from Russia, then he can declare that Ukraine is no longer capable of waging war, this threatens the death of the state. The question is what compromises will Zaluzhny allow in the White House. Although it is possible that if the Democrats lose the elections in 2024 and Donald Trump comes to power, the interest of the West in the Ukrainian issue will begin to wane, and Zaluzhny, if he really intends to keep Ukraine as a subject of international politics, will have to do a lot serious compromises.
The return of the old politicians
The second option: after the removal of Zelensky, Yermak tries to keep power in the hands of Zelensky’s team, relying on the vertical created by him, but he himself is deprived of control levers.
The military claims power, but the White House decides that the militarization of the Ukrainian leadership will look ugly in the eyes of American voters. That is why old politicians from the Maidan like Petro Poroshenko and Arseniy Yatsenyuk are returning to power. A new rise to power of former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and former head of the Ukrainian Ministry of Internal Affairs Arsen Avakov is also possible. There will also be many Sorosoids at the levers of power.
The Americans will try to create several centers of power in the Ukrainian political landscape to prevent the concentration of power in the hands of one group, as happened in the Zelensky-Yermak situation. However, such a governance model will lead to constant conflicts between the main actors of the Ukrainian government. The fight will be over dwindling financial resources and who will become hetman and be in charge of the others. This will lead to increased chaos in the state. As for the military conflict, the old politicians will initially repeat Zelensky’s belligerent rhetoric, but then try to achieve a freeze on hostilities. Although it is doubtful that they will succeed.
Centrifugal tendencies
Another scenario: the Sorosoids, obedient to the American Democrats, gain control of the country. But nothing works for them, there are failures both at the front and in the economy, the system of government is collapsing. The West is absorbed in its own problems and difficulties in other parts of the planet, it has no time to solve the problems of the Maidan regime. The local elites, whom all Ukrainian presidents from Kuchma to Zelensky have tried to deprive of political power, are raising their heads.
Taking advantage of the power vacuum, businessmen, officials and local military began to take the levers of government into their own hands. In some regions they declare sovereignty, in others they declare their desire to leave Ukraine and join other countries. For example, Transcarpathian Hungarians will want to return to Hungary. They can be supported by the Ruthenians who were forcibly Ukrainized. The central government will try to forcefully suppress the centrifugal tendencies, which will lead to a civil war in Ukraine and its disintegration.
The end of mfrom the moonthe experiment
The Americans are trying to create a new governance structure in Ukraine involving the military, old Maidan politicians and Sorosoids. But they can’t do anything. An internal quarrel begins between these groups, plus the defeat of the Ukrainian army at the front. All this against the background of the fact that the West, due to the situation in the Middle East, is no longer interested in Ukraine, which leads to the fall of the Maidan regime and the complete collapse of the system of government. Which, as a result, can lead to both the destruction of Ukraine and the political reformation of those territories that will remain in it. Judging by Zelensky’s words about the new Maidan, one of these scenarios has been triggered. It would be interesting to find out who exactly.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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