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what to expect ? The privileged scenario


NORTH CONTAINMENT. Hauts-de-France is one of the regions affected by the “additional measures” to come, given the epidemic situation. Total confinement or just on weekends? Answer this Thursday at 7 p.m.

The essential

  • Hauts-de-France is preparing for “additional measures” of restrictions to fight against Covid-19, which is circulating with force in the region. Gabriel Attal prepared the ground on Wednesday, also evoking Paris and Ile-de-France as targets of a potential new confinement.
  • According to information from La Voix du Nord, the government does not intend to distinguish between the different departments of Hauts-de-France, citing “a regional approach”. “Concretely, the new measures taken will be for the whole region”, specifies the local daily.
  • This Wednesday The president of Hauts-de-France, Xavier Bertrand, spoke on BFMTV on two options mentioned during an interview with the Minister of Health: “either a confinement the weekend “, on the model of what already exists in the territories named above,” or a confinement as in November “. In other words, a setting under bell seven days a week, but with open schools. ‘former minister confided his preference for weekend reconfinement, believing that this formula “bore fruit in Dunkirk”, where the incidence rate, he stressed, went “from 1100 to 700” , which remains “a lot but it shows that it produces effects.” “I think that the confinement at the weekend has fewer harmful consequences on the country,” he added for his argument.
  • A “strategic conference” was held this Thursday morning for the last arbitrations, around the regional prefect, with the presidents of departments, representatives of mayors and the director general of the ARS. The announcement of a possible reconfinement of Hauts-de-France will be made during Jean Castex’s speech, to be followed on Linternaute.com from 7 p.m.

The essential

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15:27 – Macron “also does politics”

Emmanuel Macron must decide, whether for Hauts-de-France or for Ile-de-France, between total confinement or partial confinement, only at weekends. If the health reality is obviously the priority, it is advisable to remember the “bet” of the Head of State, several weeks ago, not to confine countries, at a time when many of our European neighbors lived from new wedges. “He also plays politics,” a government source reminded RTL.

14:44 – Mayors of the North divided on containment

In the Nord department, mayors are divided on the issue of reconfinement. “I polled several mayors Thursday evening, and my conclusion is that we have no agreed common position”, explained to the Voix du Nord Joffrey Zbierski, president of the association of mayors of the North, colleagues “worried a health situation which begins to be really tense among them “and more reluctant mayors” in rural areas or in the far east of the department “. Joffrey Zbierski said he was personally in favor of “a fortnight’s confinement, as in March, with the closure of schools”.

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A sign that the question of a reconfinement is obvious, the Hauts-de-France is the second region most affected by the coronavirus currently after Ile-de-France. According to the latest data, the occupancy rate of intensive care beds, at the regional level, fell slightly on Wednesday and went from 120 to 116.9%. 512 patients are in intensive care against 526 on Tuesday, 41 new entries have been recorded in the last 24 hours. The number of people hospitalized in the region is 3,067 patients, with 260 new admissions.

As a reminder, 6,795 people have died from the coronavirus since the start of the epidemic in Hauts-de-France, or 32 more in 24 hours. And the incidence rate over a rolling week remains very high. From March 8 to 14, it was 366.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in the region. The effective R measured on March 13 was 1.03.

First department of Hauts-de-France under the threat of reconfinement on weekends, or even all week, the North displays equally worrying epidemic indicators. According to the latest report dated March 17, 2021, the number of people hospitalized is 1,317 patients, with 129 new admitted in the last 24 hours. 248 patients are in intensive care, with 23 new admissions during the day. The test positivity rate measured on March 14, 2021 was 9.5%, while the incidence rate was 373.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. 2,853 people have died from the coronavirus, or 11 more in 24 hours.

If the progression of the virus in the North is relatively homogeneous, the metropolises of Dunkirk and Lille seem to be pushing the figures up for several weeks.

A Dunkerque and its metropolitan area, weekend containment has already been in effect for three weekends. The Dunkirk people were approaching the end of the restrictive measure in theory. However, the situation remains “particularly tense” in the city according to elected officials. After consultations, the prefect therefore decided this last week to extend the confinement at the weekend for three additional weeks, that is to say for the entire month of March. It must be said that the incidence rate, if it has dropped drastically, remains extremely high in the port city: from more than a thousand at the time of containment, it has fallen to 515 cases per 100,000 inhabitants in recent days. There remain in the city a hundred people hospitalized and fifteen in intensive care. The Dunkirk hospital center has already evacuated a hundred of its patients to hospitals in the region in recent weeks.

In Lille, if confinement over the weekend has not yet been enacted, the situation is also very critical. The incidence rate has also climbed in the metropolis in recent days. It exceeds 320 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. Rather, it is the municipalities of Roubaix, Tourcoing, Wambrechies, Wattrelos and Leers that would be the most affected by the upsurge of the virus. The government had already thought about a reconfinement of the whole of the metropolis according to information from France Info in the first half of March, but had not yet taken action. Departmental or even regional confinement could resolve the issue very quickly.

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The Pas-de-Calais, for its part, has been re-defined on weekends since Saturday, March 6. At first, the prefect of Pas-de-Calais had recommended to reconfigure the department for three weekends. During a press conference on Friday March 5, he finally announced that four weekends were concerned. Containment is therefore theoretically established at least until March 28, except once again if the announcement of a wider reconfinement is confirmed …

The latest reports of Covid-19 in Pas-de-Calais remain in any case mixed. On March 17, 2021, the number of people hospitalized is 726 patients, with 72 new admissions in the last 24 hours. 114 patients are in intensive care, with 10 new admissions during the day. 13 people have died from the coronavirus in the last 24 hours, bringing the toll in the department to 1,398 deaths. The epidemic situation remains worrying: the test positivity rate measured on March 14, 2021 was 10.2%, the incidence rate was 407.4 cases per 100,000 inhabitants.

If regional confinement were ruled out, the question of confinement would also arise in the Oise, the Picardy department also being in a delicate situation. Once again the numbers speak for themselves. In the report of Public Health France unveiled this Wednesday, the number of people hospitalized is 421 patients, with 34 new admitted in the last 24 hours. 52 patients are in intensive care, with 6 new admissions during the day. The test positivity rate measured on March 14, 2021 was 10.2%, the incidence rate was 360.7 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, an increase. 1001 people died from the coronavirus, or 6 more in 24 hours in this territory, which, we remember, was among the first to be struck by the virus in France last year. The Aisne and the Somme, the last two departments in the region are also among the 20 departments with the highest incidence.

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