(CNN) – As the coronavirus continues to spread and kill with impunity, the world awaits a vaccine that can nullify the pandemic.
But the details and deadlines continue to change. Here’s the latest on the race for a vaccine:
When will a covid-19 vaccine be available to the public?
No one is sure yet, but the goal is for it to be ready sometime in early 2021.
Vaccines in development worldwide are in various stages of testing. Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said he is confident that one of the vaccine candidates will prove to be safe and effective by the first quarter of 2021.
But it is not yet clear which candidate is the most promising.
Meanwhile, the US government It is helping companies like Moderna accelerate the development of their vaccines so that, if they are proven to work safely, they can be implemented quickly.
“In early 2021, we expect to have a couple of hundred million doses,” Fauci said.
Dr. Francis Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health, made a similar forecast: “If all goes well, up to 100 million doses may be possible in early 2021.”
But many doctors say that getting an effective vaccine by January is a very ambitious goal.
“Everything will have to be incredibly perfect if that is to happen,” said Dr. Larry Corey, an expert in virology, immunology and vaccine development.
Why does it take so long to develop a vaccine?
Vaccines have to go through multi-stage tests to make sure they are effective and safe.
It usually takes 8-10 years for a vaccine to develop, said Dr. Emily Erbelding, an infectious disease expert at NIAID.
This is how the process usually works:
First, a vaccine is generally tested on animals rather than humans. If the results are promising, a human triphasic test will begin:
Phase 1: The vaccine is given to a small group of people to assess the safety and sometimes the response of the immune system. If things go well, the researchers move on to the next phase.
Phase 2: This phase increases the number of participants, often by hundreds, for a randomized trial. More members of at-risk groups are included. “In Phase II, the clinical study is expanded and the vaccine is administered to people who have characteristics (such as age and physical health) similar to those for which the new vaccine is intended,” according to the Centers for Control and Disease Prevention. If the results are promising, the test goes to the third phase.
Phase 3: This phase tests efficacy and safety with thousands (or tens of thousands) of people. The substantially larger number of participants in this phase helps researchers understand the possible rare side effects of the vaccine.
What are the dangers of speeding up the process?
History has shown that rapidly developed or distributed vaccines can have unintended consequences:
– In 2017, a rushed campaign to vaccinate approximately 1 million children against mosquito-borne dengue in the Philippines was halted for security reasons. The Philippine government charged 14 state officials in connection with the deaths of 10 vaccinated children, saying the program was launched “in a hurry.”
– In 1976, the United States was dealing with a new swine flu outbreak. President Gerald Ford’s administration ignored a warning from the World Health Organization and promised to vaccinate “all men, women and children in the United States” against the new virus. After 45 million people were vaccinated, the researchers found that a disproportionately high number of them, about 450 people, had developed Guillain-Barré syndrome, a rare disorder in which the body’s immune system attacks nerves and leads to paralysis. At least 30 people died.
But overall, vaccines are critical to help prevent disease and death. The WHO estimates that vaccines save 2-3 million lives a year.
So how can we safely speed up the process?
“No vaccine will be presented unless it has been thoroughly reviewed, both in terms of ‘Is it safe?’ And ‘Does it protect you?'” Said Collins, director of the National Institutes of Health.
Scientists are trying to find safe ways to speed up typical processes. For example:
– In Seattle and Atlanta, researchers planned to test them on animals and humans at the same time, rather than animals before humans, according to the health news website Stat.
– Some vaccines could be mass produced even before the trials are over. “We are going to start making doses of the vaccines long before we know that the vaccine works,” Fauci said.
If the vaccine tests are successful, millions of doses would be ready to start, which could save lives immediately rather than waiting months for production to speed up. But if the tests are not successful, the stock of pre-made vaccines could be wasted.
Fauci said the vaccine candidate, manufactured by the modern biotech company in association with NIAID, should move to a final testing stage in mid-summer. The plan is to make doses of the vaccine before it is clear if they work, making about 100 million doses in November or December, Fauci said.
Scientists should have enough data by November or December to determine if the vaccine works, Fauci said.
Another candidate vaccine, made by AstraZeneca, is underway in the UK and will follow a similar schedule.
Who is doing the vaccines?
Dozens of research teams from around the world are working to develop or test coronavirus vaccines. In early June, there were more than 120 candidate vaccines, the World Health Organization said.
Some are more advanced in their tests than others. As of June 4, 10 vaccine candidates were in human trials: four in the United States, five in China and one in the United Kingdom, the WHO said.
“Because we have several of these (trials), and they all use a different strategy, I’m optimistic that at least one, maybe two, maybe three equals what we need,” Collins said.
“We want to hedge our bets by taking a number of different approaches, so it is highly likely that at least one of them, and perhaps more, will work.”
Who participates in the trials?
Trial participants are usually volunteers who have not been previously infected with the virus.
Neal Browning, a network engineer in Washington state, said he volunteered for “the pain the world is suffering.”
“I can see the deaths. And I feel that any other person who was in my place and near the research facilities and who was a healthy person, I hope, would step forward and do the same for humanity, ”he said.
“I think it is important for them to learn that, as a member of society, I must help do what I can,” he said.
How much would a coronavirus vaccine cost?
This has not been firmly established. Aid group Doctors Without Borders has urged world leaders to require pharmaceutical companies to sell successful covid-19 vaccines at cost price – that is, without profit.
“Everyone seems to agree that we can’t apply the usual business principles here, where the highest bidders can protect their people from this disease first while the rest of the world lags behind,” said Kate Elder, senior adviser on vaccine policies.
In early June, governments and philanthropic organizations have awarded more than $ 4.4 billion to pharmaceutical corporations for research and development of covid-19 vaccines, Elder said.
How effective or durable will the vaccine be?
Not all vaccines are the same. If you get vaccinated against polio, you’re probably protected for life. But if you get a flu shot, you may still get the flu that season (although probably with less severe symptoms). And you will need a different vaccine next season.
The researchers say that, at this time, there is no way to predict how effective or durable a new coronavirus vaccine would be.
But like some vaccines, multiple doses may be required to elicit the desired immune response. Collins said Phase 3 trials will reveal whether one or two injections will be necessary.
Are we sure we will get an effective covid-19 vaccine?
No. While the researchers are optimistic, there is no guarantee.
“There are some viruses that we still don’t have vaccines against,” said Dr. David Nabarro, professor of global health at Imperial College London.
“We cannot assume that a vaccine will appear at all, or if it appears, if it will pass all the efficacy and safety tests.”
And if people don’t develop lasting immunity to the new coronavirus, a vaccine could never work well.
What should we do if we do not receive the covid-19 vaccine?
Nabarro said: “It is absolutely essential that all societies everywhere put themselves in a position where they can defend themselves against the coronavirus as a constant threat and can carry out social and economic activities in the midst of the virus.”
CNN’s Maggie Fox, Robert Kuznia, Elizabeth Cohen, Jen Christensen, Shelby Lin Erdman and Rob Picheta contributed to this report.
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