Is Europe facing a fourth wave? Since the beginning of June, many European countries have seen Covid-19 contaminations start to rise again. In France, this epidemic recovery began in early July, leading Emmanuel Macron to gradually extend the use of the health pass, in order to encourage the population to go for the vaccine.
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France is not the only country to experience an upsurge in the number of cases. As our graph below shows, the health situation in our European neighbors is also deteriorating.
In question ? The Delta variant, in particular, which is “today in the majority in the vast majority of European countries”, reports Edouard Mathieu, analyst for Our World in Data (in English), an organization which observes, among other things, the evolution of the pandemic in the world. Significant disparities appear, however, between countries.
In the United Kingdom and Portugal, an increase that began in early June
At the beginning of June, the United Kingdom, like Portugal, was among the countries in Europe with the lowest numbers of new daily cases of Covid-19: around 50 cases per million inhabitants. These two countries had also escaped the third wave of last spring.
However, from the beginning of June, new contaminations started to rise again, with more than 50% of new cases each week. From mid-June, the United Kingdom, which had to postpone the last stage of its deconfinement, and Portugal became the countries in Europe where the virus was circulating the most. This increase has not stopped since and has even accelerated in England, which reaches more than 500 daily cases per million inhabitants, a rate unprecedented across the Channel since January. In Portugal, the incidence rate is 287 cases per million inhabitants.
The role of the Delta variant, around 60% more contagious than the variants which until then had been the majority in Europe, seems to be preponderant in the early onset of the epidemic in these countries. In any case, this is the analysis of Thibault Fiolet, doctoral student in epidemiology. “These are the countries where the Delta variant was most present and it is also there that we had the first epidemic resumption”, he explains to franceinfo. In mid-June, the virus mutation was already in the majority there, while it represented less than 20% of new cases in other European countries. According to the latest figures, the Delta variant now represents more than 80% of cases in Portugal, and almost 100% in the United Kingdom.
In Spain and Greece, an acceleration of the epidemic at the end of June
The epidemic resumed later in Spain and Greece, towards the end of June. However, it was faster than in the United Kingdom or Portugal, with the weekly increase rapidly reaching + 150%. During the week of June 28 to July 5, the incidence rate rose from 85 to 225 cases per million inhabitants in Spain. The following week, it jumped from 78 to 190 in Greece.
The situation is particularly worrying in Spain. The country was at more than 430 daily cases per million inhabitants on July 14, a figure that the country had not reached for almost 6 months, and is still in a dynamic of strong progression. It should be noted that Spain was one of the countries in Europe where the virus circulated the most, even before the epidemic rebound. Thus, the daily incidence rate has never fallen below 70 per million inhabitants. In France, this figure fell below 30 at the end of June.
For Thibault Fiolet, the role of the Delta variant again seems decisive: on June 28, the last date for which there are data for a majority of European countries, Spain had nearly 50% of cases linked to the Delta variant among the news. infections, one of the highest figures in Europe behind the UK and Portugal. In Greece, where residents were coming out of strict confinement for several months, the lack of data on variants makes analysis more difficult. But the Greek authorities take this threat seriously and have decreed new measures similar to those announced on Monday by Emmanuel Macron.
In France, Switzerland and Belgium, a gradual epidemic resumption in July
In France, Switzerland and Belgium, it was in the first days of July that the increase in new cases took shape. It was slower there than in Spain or Greece. For the moment, the number of new daily cases has not exceeded 120 contaminations per million inhabitants in Belgium. France and Switzerland had daily incidence rates from 58 and 40 to July 14.
These three countries are experiencing a similar development of the European average, where the number of cases has globally doubled since the beginning of July, going from a little more than 50,000 daily cases to no less than 100,000, between 1 and 14 July.
At the end of June, the presence of the Delta variant in these countries was still within the European average, with a range of 25 to 40% of sick people infected with this mutation of the virus. The latest figures from Public Health France show that this variant is gradually establishing itself on French territory: it represented two thirds of new contaminations during the week of July 6 to 12. This gradual arrival of the variant also seems to explain this rebound, for the moment moderate, as explained to franceinfo Olivier Guérin, member of the Scientific Council.
In the Netherlands, a recent explosion
In the Netherlands, the curve makes you dizzy. As of July 5, the country had a low level of virus circulation, comparable to that of Belgium. In 10 days, the number of daily cases has increased almost tenfold, from just over 800 to almost 8,000 cases. Unheard of in Europe since the start of the pandemic. The country has caught up with the UK in terms of virus circulation, in just two weeks.
What happened ? “This new wave being very recent, the reasons are for the moment difficult to identify.“, underlines Edouard Mathieu. Like everywhere in Europe, the Delta variant is participating in the recovery. But on June 28, it still represented only a quarter of new contaminations. This figure made the Netherlands one of the European countries of the West with the lowest circulation of this virus mutation.
For Thibault Fiolet, “it is especially the 18-30 years who are contaminated”. He thus advances that “the first place of contamination identified by the local authorities are the restaurants” which reopened at the end of April. The RIVM (equivalent of Public Health France in the Netherlands) has also highlighted in a July 9 report (in Dutch) the appearance of several clusters in student parties organized at hotels or restaurants. A music festival organized in early July also contributed to the epidemic recovery, with a thousand people infected, despite the use of the health pass.
In Germany, Italy and Austria, a very low circulation of the virus
They seem, for the moment, to be sheltered. In Italy, Austria and Germany, the fourth wave seems quite far away. Admittedly, the number of cases increased over the first two weeks of July, but the incidence rate remains very low, with less than 25 daily cases per million inhabitants. To give an idea, France has not experienced such low circulation of the virus for almost a year.
Why is the epidemic stalling, even though the Delta variant is in the majority there, with a greater share than that present in the Netherlands? Two factors should be emphasized. First, the low prior circulation of the virus: these countries had reached an incidence rate of less than 12 at the end of June. In addition, restrictive health measures have been maintained there, as in Austria and Germany. The two German-speaking countries have extended the use of the health pass for several weeks already. The document is thus necessary to go to the restaurant or the hairdresser.
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