The Kremlin uses the pretext of protecting ethnic Russians to attack Ukraine and threaten other former Soviet states. It has recently threatened Moldova, with a Russian commander saying in April that gaining control of southern Ukraine would help Russia connect with the breakaway Moldovan region of Transnistria, the New Statesman reported.
Dmitry Peskov, the Kremlin’s press secretary, said in June that Moldova was linking its bid for EU candidate status, which it received on June 23, to opposition to Russia. “The more anti-Russian they become, the more they think Europeans should like them. We really wouldn’t want that to happen,” he said.
Ukraine and Moldova are far from the only countries with a sizeable population of ethnic Russians and Russian speakers. Belarus and Kazakhstan have a high proportion of Russian speakers. Latvia and Estonia, which are members of the EU and NATO, have over 30 percent.
Kazakhstan
Igor Krasnov, Russia’s chief prosecutor, recently said that Ukrainian activists in Kazakhstan are helping to fuel anti-Russian sentiment in the country. Privately, Kazakh government officials are concerned that Putin may turn his attention to them after Ukraine.
Ethnic Russians are particularly concentrated in the northern and eastern provinces of Kazakhstan. Altai Oblast in the east is 77% ethnic Russian, while Magzhan Zhumabaev in northern Kazakhstan is 58%, according to the latest Kazakh government figures.
All areas with large Russian populations fall along a 4,750-mile land border, the world’s longest continuous international border, which is sure to be the focus of any potential military action.
Moldova
Recent veiled threats against Moldova have been mainly about the autonomous region of Transnistria, which is under Russian-backed separatist control. There is no census data for this region, but Russian is the main official language. Transnistria borders Ukraine, so if Russia manages to connect its occupied Ukrainian territory with the breakaway region, it could threaten Moldova.
The second autonomous region of Moldova is Gagauzia, where the native language is Gagauz, a Turkic language, but most people speak Russian.
Bălți is the second largest city in Moldova and the Russian-speaking capital of the country. The country’s capital, Chisinau, also has a large Russian minority.
Kyrgyzstan
Approximately 9% of Kyrgyzstan speak Russian. However, 23% of the capital Bishkek and 21% of those in the surrounding Chui region speak Russian. Kyrgyzstan has no border with Russia. Its neighbors are Kazakhstan to the north and Uzbekistan to the west.
Estonia
Estonia shares its eastern border with Russia and, like Kazakhstan, the border municipalities are more likely to be populated by Russian speakers. In particular, the border city of Narva in the northeast is 96% Russian-speaking, making it the most Russian-speaking city in the European Union.
The city has a bridge with Ivangorod on the Russian side, and before the invasion of Ukraine, residents freely mingled with their Russian neighbors. However, the war has led to an increase in people taking Estonian citizenship in the city, and visas are more difficult to obtain.
Neither Estonia nor Russia have yet completed ratification of their 2014 border agreement. Estonia is a member of NATO, which makes a Russian invasion much less likely, as the pact means the alliance treats an invasion of one of its members as an invasion to all of them.
Latvia
Latvia is also a member of NATO and shares a border with Russia. About 34% of the country speaks Russian, mainly in the east, along the border with Russia, and in the south, along the border with Belarus. Pededze parish in the northeast is 70% ethnic Russian, Golishevas parish in the east is 71%, and Lauderoo parish is 74%.
Of course, language and ethnicity are not the only excuse Russia uses to invade other countries.
Chechnya was independent after the fall of the Soviet Union, but was then reoccupied by Russia, although Russians make up only 2% of the population. Some regions, such as Ingushetia, which borders Chechnya, have less than 1% ethnic Russians. South Ossetia, the focus of the 2008 invasion of Georgia, was just over 1% Russian according to the 2015 census.
Other non-ethnic Russian countries bordering Russia are also worried about the actions Putin’s government might take. These include Finland, which has relatively few Russian speakers (Imatra, a city in the east, has the highest share of just 5%) and which, along with Sweden, is in the process of joining NATO.
