May is not a happy month for Hillary Clinton. It loses one area code after the other: a week ago in Indiana, now in West Virginia and in a week probably also in Kentucky and Oregon. In order to keep the victories of her rival Bernie Sanders within bounds, she programmatically surrenders ground and lets him push her further to the left – presumably no advantage in the main election either; because that is decided in the fight for the middle.
Sanders wins, but wins few delegates
And it loses time. Your Republican opponent Donald Trump is already working to unite his camp after a controversial pre-election process and to develop strategies for raising campaign funds. She remains trapped in the inner-party duel with Sanders, although the outcome has long been decided.
In the delegate count for the nomination at the party congress, she leads with almost 300 delegates – if you add the super delegates, the lead is as much as 770 delegates. Sander’s victories in Indiana and West Virginia only narrowed the gap by five delegate votes each. That doesn’t change the outcome: Hillary Clinton becomes the Democratic presidential candidate. But each subsequent one of these defeats is politically painful. Because they expose Clinton’s weak points.
It has a shockingly large deficit of support among white male voters in states that were once industrial or coal-making, but now belong to the Rust Belt like Ohio, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and Kentucky. In the past, the white workers were one of the reliable pillars of the Democrats, but now many white workers give their votes to the Republicans. And: if they still vote democratically, they are more likely to be found with Sanders than with Clinton.
Clinton upsets the coal miners
When Hillary Clinton propagates the change to alternative energies in the election campaign and adds that “many coal mines and coal-fired power stations will die”, which is why aid programs must be developed for the workers concerned, she ammunitions the political opponent. In case of doubt, he only refers to the first part of her statement: Many coal mines and coal-fired power plants will die. The coal miners and their relatives then follow Trump, who calls climate change a malicious rumor, when in doubt.
In left-wing alternative states like Oregon, Clinton is also left behind against Sanders. With a view to this electorate, she is moving to the left in her election campaign statements, for example in health policy. Although it does not promise a “single payer system” – where, as in Germany, the whole family is insured free of charge, even if only one main breadwinner pays his or her individual contribution – it wants to expand access to the “Medicare” program.
It leads among women and loses men
However, states like Oregon are not decisive for voting. You will reliably vote democratically on November 8th, election day. Most of the Sanders supporters there will also vote for Clinton. They don’t want to let Trump become president and choose Clinton as the lesser evil. The Democrats have to worry about key states like Ohio and Pennsylvania – and about the gender gap: Clinton clearly leads among women compared to Trump. But Trump’s lead among male voters there is almost twice as great as their lead among female voters.
In this election year 2016, which is full of surprises and difficult to calculate, the traditional US election map has started to move. Trump succeeds in bringing states into play that voted for the Democrats in 2008 and 2012. Conversely, because of her lead among Latino voters, Clinton can hope for states that previously voted Republican, such as Arizona. But how these changes will affect the bottom line is still open.
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