USA: The 7+1 volatile factors until the presidential election – 2024-02-18 16:22:17

Although US citizens vote primarily on their economic situation, not on wars in some “foreign” countries, US involvement or disengagement has been an area of ​​bitter political controversy in the past (eg Iraq). The Russian invasion of Ukraine and the war entering its third year, combined with the war in Gaza and the spillover of the crisis in the Middle East, are intensifying uncertainty and insecurity. How will President Biden and Donald Trump react to a rapidly worsening crisis?

The blocking of US aid to Ukraine and Israel by the Republicans in Congress and its connection to the “sealing” of the southern US border against illegal immigrants is a case in point. All the more so when Trump promises to end the war in Ukraine in a day and combines unwavering support for Israel with threats to bomb Iran, while Biden is called upon to show “presidential punch” against any attack on American soldiers or American interests.

Health and age can hide unexpected things

As one side lurks for a sign of weakness in the other, the physical health and mental clarity of the two gladiators come under the microscope daily. Having turned 81 last November, Biden is burdened in addition to government duties by a grueling election campaign that grows more exhausting every day.

At the same time, Trump looks considerably younger, although he is only three and a half years younger than Biden. Each stumble, each unintelligible phrase of one is proof to the opposing camp of his unfitness to decide the fate of Americans for another term, at the end of which Biden will be 86 years old and Trump 82. Their medical staffs they try to keep them in shape, but at these ages the unexpected lurks.

The blunders, exaggerations and “uses”

Admittedly, Biden has more blunders on his record, to the extent that Trump has called him an “elderly,” linking them to his health, while White House representatives have had to issue several times in recent months clarifying statements about the content and meaning of presidential statements. On the other hand, there are so many non-existent claims and fake news that the “anti-systemic” Trump makes and reproduces, that it is often difficult to distinguish whether they are blunders or a conscious choice of words and phrases towards his respective audience. However, President Biden, due to his position, is more at risk of stirring up a bigger fuss with a blunder, and perhaps for this reason he is limited to few speaking “uses”, especially on international issues, giving a handle to the Trump staff to accuse him of wanting to be re-elected in hiding by the American people.

Judicial Fronts from Capitol Hill to… Afghanistan

Faced with dozens of criminal charges, Trump is trying to delay with a barrage of appeals the trial of cases that would have already sent another “systemic” politician to the sidelines. In one of them, Trump was convicted first for sexual abuse, then for defamation of the now 80-year-old writer E.J. Carroll, in which jurors awarded more than $80 million in damages. Trump cited a miscarriage of justice, but his appeal was dismissed last Thursday. A few hours later, the hearing on Trump’s appeal against his exclusion from the elections in two states (Colorado and Maine) began at the Supreme Court. Trump’s invocation of “presidential immunity” in the election conspiracy case is also headed to the Supreme Court. On the same day, Joe Biden scored a Pyrrhic victory for the classified Afghanistan files he had kept in his garage since he was the country’s vice president. The special prosecutor decided not to take him to trial, but noted vitriolically that the jury would see before them “a nice, well-meaning hawk with a bad memory” and would probably acquit him.

The scenario of a strong third candidate

Public opinion, especially the youth, declares that it is tired of the war between the two elder politicians. 67% of Americans said in January that they are “tired of seeing the same candidates in presidential elections and want someone new” (Reuters/Ipsos poll). In another survey (Gallup) last fall, the percentage of citizens who said there needs to be a third party jumped to 63%, the highest in the last two decades. This does not mean that Americans would vote en masse for a third party and that its candidate would have a realistic chance of being elected. But a nomination of him Robert Kennedy Jr (of the well-known political family, which gathered 14% in a Quinnipiac University poll), the Greens or the No Labels movement could capture a critical number of votes in the States where the result is considered ambivalent (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia, Arizona). Biden is considered more vulnerable in this scenario.

The possibility of a new health (or other) crisis

Around this time four years ago the Trump administration imposed controls on air flights from China over a strange, deadly virus from China. Six weeks later, the US went into lockdown. The previous presidential elections were held in the shadow of the coronavirus health crisis that spread death and fear, overturned economic policies, while creating fertile ground for science deniers (with Trump among the protagonists), as well as unprecedented repressive measures. According to the scientific community, it is only a matter of time before a new major health crisis occurs. Whether it coincides with the US election campaign is probably a matter of luck.

Hits below the belt with fake news

It is estimated that this year’s American elections will be the most expensive in history, that is, more expensive than those of 2020 where more than 14 billion dollars were spent (twice as much as the 2016 elections). Political analysts discount that there will be strikes below the belt, they believe that some of these strikes will be made with fake news behind which are party staffs, individuals or foreign actors, such as Russia and China, who would like to they tip the scales in favor of one of the candidates. With fresh memories of the scandal of Russian sabotage in the 2016 election in favor of Trump (as judged by a congressional committee), the American agencies claim that they have closed the “holes” in the system, but they cannot rule out a new attempt. The digital world has many windows. A fabricated news story, a deep fake video showing a politician doing or saying inappropriate things, especially in the last days before the polls, could be fatal.

Nine months is too long for politics. If someone is prematurely out of the fray, there are insurance policies for their replacement by the party and for a new presidential candidacy. But such a thing would be yet another test for US democracy.