The University of Michigan index stands at 86.4 points, up from 82.9 points in May. Analysts had expected a rise to just 83.5 points.
–
US consumer confidence recovered in June, buoyed by the outlook for economic growth and a sharp decline in unemployment, and despite fears that prices would continue to rise.
The index stands at 86.4 points, up from 82.9 points in May, according to a preliminary estimate from the University of Michigan survey released Friday. This is much better than expected by analysts, who saw it stand at just 83.5 points.
It is on track to catch up to its level reached in April, when it was at its highest since the start of the crisis (88.3 points).
In detail, it is the perception of the economic outlook that improves the most (+ 6.3% to 83.8 points), while that of current conditions is 1.3% to 90.6 points.
“The rise in inflation has remained a major concern of consumers, although the expected inflation rate is lower in early June,” said Richard Curtin, the economist in charge of this survey, quoted in the press release.
Because Americans are worried about their purchasing power. Consumer prices jumped spectacularly 5% in May over one year in the United States, their largest increase in nearly 13 years.
Consumers are thus particularly pessimistic about the prices of houses, vehicles and durable household goods (furniture, household appliances, etc.), since their perception on this specific point has fallen to its “worst level since the historical record of November 1974”, when inflation was soaring in the United States.
But a significant part of the inflation seen in May is linked to the comparison to last year, when prices fell due to the containment measures. This effect should diminish as of June, according to some economists.
In addition, households will increasingly spend their money on services – restaurants, travel, leisure, etc. – very affected by the pandemic and which are coming back to life. Household consumption, which has received a lot of government aid, should shift to leisure, after strong demand for goods, which will allow the available supply to better meet demand.
Global supply chain disruptions, causing delays and rising prices, are expected to last a few more months before normalcy returns.
–
