The revised U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) for October-December 2023 (fourth quarter) has been revised slightly downward from the preliminary figure. This reflects the downward revision of inventory. On the other hand, personal consumption and capital investment were revised upward.
Key Point
- The revised U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 3.2% annually compared to the previous quarter.
- Downward revision from preliminary figure of 3.3% increase
- The revised median forecast by economists is for a 3.3% increase.
- Increased 4.9% last quarter
- Revised personal consumption increases by 3%
- Upward revision from preliminary figure of 2.8% increase
- Economists’ median forecast was for a 2.7% increase.
For the full year of 2023, it will increase by 2.5%, accelerating from the previous year and far exceeding the euro area and Japan.
The U.S. economy in 2023 surprised many economists who had expected the economy to enter a recession due to aggressive interest rate hikes by the financial authorities. The economy appears to have continued to move forward, with a strong labor market supporting consumer spending.
Economists generally expect growth to be somewhat sluggish this year as high borrowing costs dampen household demand and business investment, but they expect the economy to avoid a downturn.
Domestic private final demand after adjusting for inflation, which indicates the strength of underlying demand, has also been revised upward from preliminary figures for the October-December period.
“All of this suggests that domestic demand is growing faster than initially thought and that the overall economy is performing well,” James Knightley, chief international economist at ING, said in a report.
The personal consumption expenditure (PCE) price index, an inflation indicator that the U.S. financial authorities focus on, rose at an annual rate of 1.8% from the previous quarter. The PCE core price index, which excludes food and energy, rose 2.1%. Both figures have been slightly revised upward from the preliminary figures.
The contribution of inventories to GDP was -0.27 points, with preliminary figures showing a slight positive contribution. The contribution of personal consumption was +2 points.
See table for detailed statistics.
Original title:US GDP Revised Slightly Lower Despite Stronger Consumer Spending(excerpt)
(Updates with addition of 5th and 6th paragraphs and final paragraph)
2024-02-28 13:54:39
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