When 330 million Americans wake up Wednesday morning, it will be clear whether Joe Biden and the Democrats will still have a majority in the House of Representatives and the Senate, or if the Republicans will now take control of both houses.
The mid-term elections of 8 November will give an important signal on the direction that the United States will take from now on.
– Trump is a destabilizing factor in himself
– Looks like a storm is brewing. Atmosphere of economic crisis, political extremism, an old and weak president and Trump as a destabilizing factor in himself ready to return to the scene. And then a possible indictment of Trump in the near future.
Facts about the mid-term elections in the United States
* Midterm elections in the United States are held every four years, in the middle of the presidential term.
* This year, Election Day is Tuesday 8 November.
* Congress will hold elections for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, as well as for 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate.
* Representatives in the House of Representatives are elected for two years at a time, while Senators are elected for six years at a time.
* Governors will also be elected in 39 states and territories. Additionally, there are a number of local posts to fill.
* Democrats currently have a majority in the House of Representatives, and in practice the narrowest possible majority in the Senate due to the vice president’s double vote.
* Out of 35 Senate seats awaiting election, there are 21 Republicans and 14 Democrats
(Facts: NTB)
This is how NORCE researcher Professor Hilmar Mjelde summarizes the situation the day before the fateful elections in the United States. The eyes of the world are on the superpower, which will now choose which politicians will sit with decisive influence at the highest political level in the United States.
– The margin of victory will be slightly lower than might otherwise be expected
Former President Donald Trump during an election event in Latrobe, Pennsylvania. Photo: Jacqueline Larma / AP / NTB
– How much is really at stake now, where are the biggest political bombs?
– The Republicans will win back the majority in the House of Representatives, I can say that here and now. But Republicans made a surprisingly good choice for the House of Representatives in 2020. Therefore, the margin of victory will likely be a bit smaller than might otherwise be expected, Mjelde believes.
Mid-term elections in the United States are held every four years, in the middle of the presidential term. Congress will hold elections for all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, as well as for 34 of the 100 seats in the Senate.
– Democrats are on the defensive
– The tension is more about the Senate elections, where the Democrats will be able to keep the majority at best. Senate elections are more dependent on the candidate and less tied to the country’s political mood, so it’s more open, explains the US researcher.
He believes Democrats could lose government elections in New York and Oregon, but also in Senate elections in New Hampshire and Washington state, Biden’s party members face defeat.
– The fact that the Democrats are on the defensive in this election points to a very good election for Republicans in general, says Hilmar Mjelde.
– Inflation makes people feel that the system is out of control
– Worst economic conditions for the average American get a lot of attention, will they decide the elections?
– Yes. Record inflation is clearly the most important issue. The United States does not have the welfare state we have in Norway. This is why the economy is always the number 1 issue in the US elections. After all, Biden was supposed to be the president of the most disadvantaged, and they are the ones most affected by inflation. And inflation makes people feel that the system is out of control. At the same time, most people live their lives as before. They don’t see demonstrations and armed militias outside their window, Mjelde points out.
– Then there will be a complete congressional arrest for Biden
– Trump is a destabilizing factor in himself ready to make a comeback, says NORCE researcher Hilmar Mjelde. Photo: AFP / NTB
– What consequences could it have if Republicans win new mandates and get a majority in both the Senate and the House of Representatives? Will they then be able to sabotage Biden’s policy and will they?
– Then there will be a complete congressional arrest for Biden. The purpose of the Republicans is to close the Joe Biden presidency. They will say they will block his agenda and conduct aggressive congressional hearings aimed at weakening him politically as much as possible. So we’re going to hear a lot about this troubled son of his, Hunter Biden, in 2023, Mjelde replies.
There has also been speculation that Republicans will attempt to impeach Biden.
– Paradoxically, there has been a shorter distance between the two sides in economic policy
However, the US expert does not believe that previous decisions, such as the much-discussed giant Biden package, will be reversed or reinstated.
– Basically no, because it would require a veto-proof majority in both houses of Congress, which Republicans are nowhere near reaching. A president can veto congressional decisions unless he has overwhelming support in Congress, Mjelde explains.
– Paradoxically, there has been a shorter distance between the two parties in economic policy, because the Republicans have moved towards the center in economic policy. It is typical of right-wing radical parties such as the Republican Party throughout the West. Biden has helped Republicans to some extent on some of his reforms, adds the NORCE researcher.
– Biden will have a harder job
– What consequences could a republican victory have for Europe, NATO and the war in Ukraine?
– The president has great leeway in foreign policy, so a by-election means less to US foreign policy than a presidential election. So Biden can go on like before there, more or less. But Biden will have a more difficult task in securing new economic aid packages for Ukraine, because then he needs a decision in Congress and the Republicans could hold back, says US researcher Hilmar Mjelde.
