Russian President Vladimir Putin could walk on thin ice. At least that’s what US historian Harold James thinks: “Putin will probably leave soon.”
Princeton – The escalation of the conflict in Ukraine is causing destabilization in Ukraine, in Europe and not least in Russia. This is what Harold James, historian and professor at the renowned Princetion University says in an interview t-online. The scholar points out that in Germany and other Western countries the stability of Putin’s Russia is overestimated. This could be due to the fact that European countries are themselves facing serious crises. Many countries have been in crisis mode for several years due to the corona pandemic, rising inflation and energy shortages, among other things.
War in Ukraine: “Putin’s end has already begun”
James describes the Russian war of aggression as being driven by “a sense of humiliation and weakness”. Vladimir Putin has not yet passed the end of the Soviet Union. To justify the war, however, he “uses history as in a self-service”. The professor probably alludes to the various reasons given by the Kremlin for its self-proclaimed “special operation”. According to Russia, they wanted to denazify Ukraine. Another pretext for the invasion was that Ukraine, like many other former Soviet states, was already part of the “Russian world”.
But the expert is certain of a point that according to him Putin has not yet understood: «Imperialism always fails. Sometimes it takes a long time, but they fail. Putin’s end has already begun, “says the professor t-online.
War in Ukraine: Russia “much more unstable than many in the West believe”
According to James, the current state of the war is not at all favorable to Russia. There are several reasons that cast doubt on Putin’s solid position in Russia. For one thing, Putin’s partial mobilization is not going as he had imagined. Furthermore, the bogus referendums in eastern Ukraine are not credible. Furthermore, there is a notable faction in Russia that criticizes the president for not acting brutally enough: “The political situation in Russia is much more unstable than many in the West believe. There is a good chance that Russia will collapse soon. “
James warns, however, that if Putin were to be effectively overthrown, it would be the extremist nationalists who would take power. The scientist sees another alternative in a military coup.
War in Ukraine: “Putin will probably leave soon”
Since this leads James to the hypothesis: “Putin will probably leave soon”. But this is not necessarily a desirable scenario. The expert says that a democratic transition from Putin’s government to a successor government is extremely unlikely. A form of putsch carried out by extremists is much more realistic. According to the historian, these same groups are more likely to use weapons of mass destruction, such as nuclear weapons. This is not a “promising path”.
War in Ukraine: Putin could find himself with two acquaintances in the struggle for power
US historian Timothy Snyder also believes that a power struggle in Russia is likely. He predicts “a conventional Russian defeat in Ukraine that will turn into a Russian power struggle that will require Russian withdrawal from Ukraine. Historically, this is a very well-known chain of events. “
Snyder also assumes that Putin could face a power struggle with two acquaintances. The first concerns Ramzan Kadyrov, the ruler of the Russian region of Chechnya. On the other hand, it is the leader of the Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozchin. Both had criticized Putin for not being tough enough in Ukraine. (lp)
