This summer is also being atypical in terms of employment. July is traditionally a time when the number of offers skyrockets, mainly in the tourism sector, but the pandemic has changed the course of this activity and the number of registered in the job center has grown 37% compared to the same period last year.
According to data released by the Institute of Employment and Professional Training (IEFP), the number of unemployed registered in employment centers exceeded 407 thousand Portuguese, until the end of July. «At the end of July, 407,302 unemployed individuals were registered, a number that represents 74.5% of a total of 546,846 job applications», says the IEFP.
All told, these figures represent an increase of over 110 thousand registered unemployed compared to the same period in 2019, but compared to June, the increase was 0.2%, that is, another 637 registered unemployed. «To the increase in unemployment recorded in relation to the same month of 2019, all groups of the unemployed file contributed, with emphasis on women, adults aged 25 years and over, those registered for less than a year, those looking for new job and those with secondary school education ”, explained the organization.
A much higher number than that released by the National Statistics Institute (INE), which revealed that in the second semester, the unemployed population decreased from 348.1 thousand to 278.4 thousand, that is, by 69,700 people. Accounts that sounded alarms with Eugénio Rosa. To the i, the economist had already guaranteed that, in just three months, 135 thousand jobs had been destroyed, which gives an average of 1,500 jobs a day. «It is a true ‘miracle’ performed by INE. 135 thousand jobs are destroyed and, therefore, 135 thousand lose their jobs. However, the ‘official unemployment’ calculated by INE, instead of increasing in that period, even decreased by 69,700 ».
The economist went further, guaranteeing that “the concealment of reality is so gross that it is evident that the methodology used by INE to determine the number of unemployed does not allow to know the reality of unemployment in our country”, and that the data from the office statistics “do not reflect reality”.
This scenario led Eugénio Rosa to question the ‘engineering’ used by INE to reduce official unemployment and thus “hide the true and dramatic situation of ‘real unemployment’ in Portugal”. In the economist’s view, the statistics office is considering as unemployed all unemployed workers who did not seek employment in the period in which the survey was carried out and which he designates as ‘available inactive’.
And remember that this group between the first and the second quarter increased from 166.4 thousand to 312.1 thousand, 87.6% more. «If we add the available inactive to official unemployment, we obtain, for the first quarter, 514,500 unemployed, and for the second, 590.5 thousand (+76 thousand), therefore a ‘real unemployment’ much higher than the ‘official unemployment’ of INE ». The economist also says that if the values of March 31 are compared with those of June 30, the conclusions are much more serious. “According to INE’s monthly employment estimates, between that period, the employed population decreased from 4.812 million to 4.658 million (-154.5 thousand), while official unemployment increased from 317.2 thousand to 350.9 thousand (+33, 7 thousand), but real unemployment rose from 497.2 thousand to 632.5 thousand (+135.3 thousand) ».
X-ray
According to IEFP data, at the regional level, unemployment increased “in most regions”, except for the autonomous region of the Azores. The most accentuated percentage increase occurred in the Algarve – it was 216.1% compared to the same month of 2019, which is equivalent to another 15,621 unemployed. This is followed by Lisbon and the Tagus Valley, with an increase of 51.6% (plus 46,036) and Alentejo, which saw the number of registered in employment centers rise by 28.9% (plus 4,039).
The Center region recorded an increase of 26.2% (plus 10,641 unemployed) and the North registered a growth of 24.5% (over 30,421 registered).
In percentage terms, the activity of ‘accommodation, restaurants and the like’, one of the most affected by the pandemic, was the one that saw unemployment rise most in July compared to the same month last year – an increase of 96.7%, ie , plus 20,714 unemployed enrolled in employment centers. However, compared to June, there was a recovery – the number of subscribers to this activity fell 3.5%.
Among those that saw unemployment worsen further in July compared to the same month of 2019 are the activities of ‘transport and storage’ (70.6% more) and ‘the leather and leather products industry’ (61 more, 8%).
Youth unemployment rose 58% compared to July 2019, but decreased 0.3% in relation to June. Also the number of couples with both members registered in employment centers increased 22% in July compared to the same month of 2019, to 6,560, but less 0.8% (-50 couples) in relation to the previous month.
It should be remembered that couples in this situation of double unemployment are entitled to an increase of 10% of the amount of the unemployment benefit that they are receiving, when they have dependent dependents.
Henrique Tomé, an analyst at XTB, recalls that the recovery of the number of registered in the job center will depend on consumption, “which will be the main source to stimulate the economy, so that companies can resume normality and restore jobs and / or, eventually, hire new labor ‘.
Ricardo Evangelista also says that there are still many uncertainties and the effects of the pandemic continue to be felt, both in terms of business investment and family spending. In view of this scenario, he argues that it is “normal that the recovery in the labor market, in year-on-year terms, is not happening now. For this to happen, it will be necessary for the uncertainty to decrease, in Portugal and in the rest of the world, since we are an open economy and, therefore, heavily dependent on exports and tourism ». And he recalls that “we must not forget that the economic contraction was the biggest ever and affected all sectors in a transversal way, which makes a quick recovery difficult”.
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