We brake, but only slowly and unevenly. Such on Friday was one of the summaries of the current epidemic situation in the Czech Republic. On average this week, there were an increase of about 4,000 cases per day, the number of hospitalizations decreased and the share of positive seizures in the total volume of tests decreased slightly.
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“We are still at a stage when the epidemic is clearly slowing down, but it shows a number of risky sub-trends – individual regions differ and differences are becoming very significant,” said Ladislav Dušek, director of the Institute of Health Information and Statistics (IHIS).
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The current risk score of the anti-epidemic system PES is 57 points for the whole country, ie it corresponds to level 3, and if it is maintained for seven days, a proposal to relax the measures should follow. That is, the opening of shops and services and the further revival of a still quiet social life.
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However, a closer look at the data speaks for the opposite verdict – the value for the third degree of PES lasts for several days, but it is borderline and certainly does not decrease. In addition, the situation in several regions speaks against it.
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“We have ones that are still in a potentially very risky state. Among them are the Vysočina Region, the Pardubice Region, the Hradec Králové Region and partly the Karlovy Vary Region. Although there is no escalation to super-risk values, there is a large load in the population, there is a large proportion of newly positively diagnosed seniors and many of them are hospitalized, “described the director Dušek.
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The tables of statisticians show that the values for the third degree have long been maintained for a long time only by Prague and the Moravian-Silesian Region, which, thanks to their size, also provide optimistic prospects for the rest of the country.
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“Without Prague, the score is 62 and the whole republic would remain above 60 points, ie in level 4. The situation is very unstable, we still have a high difference in positive tests and differences between regions can be potentially very risky – it is necessary to consider how to approach the situation, “says the head of statistics.
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The share of positive tests in the total volume is declining, but remains above 20 percent. The safe ratio would be below 10.
Minister Jan Blatný (for YES) will receive a government meeting on Sunday, at which further steps will be discussed. Whether the warning numbers from the regions are a reason for him to delay further relaxation of the rules, but he did not want to say on Friday. As in previous days, he chose careful words and referred to further developments.
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“In any case, it will not be the case that the score is recalculated without Prague. At Sunday’s government meeting, it will be decided whether or not it will be possible to move to level three on Monday – if this happens, the whole country. As important as the national indicator is, the regions need to be taken into account. If it is clear that there is an extreme deterioration in many regions, it can affect the decision – the source of information is the system, but the final decision is up to the board of experts, “said Blatný.
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Vendors as well as service operators and others who had to close their trades due to the epidemic remain in uncertainty until Sunday.
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Certainly, on the contrary, they already have schools – from Monday they will operate in the regime according to the current fourth degree of the anti-epidemic system of the Ministry of Health, even if the government decides on Sunday to mitigate measures to the third degree of infection risk. Aneta Lednová, a spokeswoman for the Ministry of Education, confirmed this on Friday.
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However, some previous statements by politicians show that the government will not be in a hurry for a quick release. Jan Hamáček, Deputy Prime Minister and Chairman of the CSSD, called for caution and cautious action during the week, and Prime Minister Andrej Babiš (ANO) joined him on Thursday. “The situation is still not good. The numbers have dropped, but it’s not what we imagined. It is important to relax with forethought, “said the Prime Minister.
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What decides
The PES system evaluates the development of the epidemic in the Czech Republic according to four criteria, assigns a point value to each and their sum is the resulting risk score, a declining or increasing trend also plays a role. According to its amount, the country is included in one of the five levels, to which the measures are linked.
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The strictest purple level starts at 75 points, below this sum the situation in the Czech Republic fell last Wednesday. It is the seven-day non-deterioration that is a condition for the ministry to propose a mitigation of the measure. Three days are enough to tighten.
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In higher degrees of risk, the same measures are expected for the whole republic, in the two lowest, according to earlier statements of the Minister, different settings of measures in individual regions could be. Even the first mildest degree requires an emergency.
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