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The clearest sign of how much Boris Johnson’s position has changed came on Thursday when Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross announced that he had withdrawn his letter of censure to the prime minister. In comments that echoed a similar speech by Labor leader Sir Keir Starmer last weekend, the Scottish Conservative said “in the midst of an international crisis is not the time to discuss resignations.”
It is a general feeling in the conservative parliamentary party. As the atrocities in Ukraine grow by the day, questions about the matches risk appearing trivial. As one figure who previously lobbied behind the scenes to oust Johnson from No. 10 puts it: “It would be insane to act against the Prime Minister while the situation in Ukraine is as it is. That’s where our focus should be.” Even if the police were to announce a fixed sanction notice for the prime minister tomorrow, there are doubts that it would provoke an avalanche of letters of censure.
Johnson’s supporters hope he can prove through his handling of the current turmoil that he deserves a chance to overcome the mistakes of Partygate. The question is whether Johnson and his new team can use this time not only to perform well in the Ukraine, but also to get the No 10 and Whitehall machinery in order for the challenges ahead.
There are some signs of optimism. The prime minister won applause from MPs for his early handling of the crisis, with Johnson seen, as one payroll member puts it, “having come out ahead in global diplomacy”. His supporters point to Johnson calling early on for Russian banks to be excluded from the Swift payment system, as well as the decision to send defensive weapons to Ukraine before Russia invaded.
Behind the scenes, changes are taking place at Downing Street too, with some attendees leaving and new staff expected to join soon. Lynton Crosby ally David Canzini has now started his new role as deputy chief of staff and addressed special advisers yesterday. New policy chief Andrew Griffith, a 2019 MP who previously served as Johnson’s trade adviser, addressed advisers last month along with new communications director Guto Harri.
The couple tried to focus on the delivery before the next election, the timing of which is still up in the air. Attendees were asked to envision the kind of speech Johnson would have to give in a few years if he were to seek re-election and then worked from there on how to turn those crime-to-level-up promises into reality.
But that is not to say that no one around Johnson is taking for granted the idea that he will carry the party into the next election. As one key ally puts it: “He has time, but there are still plenty of colleagues who want him gone.” A government whip says: “Ukraine had stopped domestic politics, but these problems have not disappeared forever.”
Further efforts are being made to strengthen support for the Prime Minister. Last week, around 100 key supporters, including long-standing patrons and members of the 2019 induction, were invited to number 10 for the Prime Minister to express his thanks. But there were only refreshments, as the event fell victim to Downing Street’s new liquor ban.
But as Johnson and his new team try to turn the page, there are already some warning signs. First, the Ukraine situation means there are limits to what Johnson and his team can do outside of the crisis. An overnight trip for all Conservative MPs, designed to link the parliamentary party, has been postponed again, on the grounds that recent events mean the time is not right. While the initial stage of Johnson’s response in Ukraine has drawn praise from MPs, the slow progress of sanctions, as well as widespread confusion over the UK’s offer to refugees, has soured the mood in certain quarters. of the match. “The situation at the Home Office is disgraceful,” says a minister, following mixed messages this week about how Ukrainian refugees fleeing to the UK should make the journey.
Meanwhile, the cost of the crisis is only beginning to be felt. This week’s Cabinet was longer than usual and focused on Ukraine. The ministers left worried about the level of inflation that could reach in the coming months. There is already pressure on Johnson and his chancellor, Rishi Sunak, to offer more support to struggling households in this month’s Spring Declaration. And Conservative MPs are pushing for a return to fracking to help ease the energy crisis. The commercial department is resistant.
It follows that there are many doubts that the Government is working even better: teething problems remain. “The situation in Ukraine means that many of the internal problems have disappeared, but they will come back,” says a member of the government. “The Met Police report and the Sue Gray report will put Partygate back on the agenda and soon MPs will be campaigning for local elections which will be a judgment call on their leadership.”
Johnson has been given the opportunity to resume his role as prime minister; the question that remains is whether he can take it.
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