“The probability of a Ukrainian military victorythat includes the expulsion of Russians from all of Ukraine, including Crimea, the likelihood of this happening early is not militarily high“. This was stated by the US Chief of Staff, General Mark Milley, in a conference at the Pentagon, adding that it would instead be possible political solutionthanks to which the Russians withdraw.
According to President Biden’s top military adviser, Russia would still have significant fighting power inside Ukraine despite the military setbacks. So far “Russia has lost strategically, operationally and tactically,” he said, adding that Russia has failed “every single” goal in its war against Ukraine.
“The Russians have failed every single time. They lost strategically, they lost operationally and, I repeat, they lost tactically. What they tried to do, they failed,” Milley said. “The strategic reformulation of their goals, of their illegal invasion, have all failed, every one of them.”
Milley emphasized Russia’s failure to “invade all of Ukraine” at the start of the war as well as after their reconcentration in the Donbass region and the capture of Zaporizhzhia and Kherson. “Across the entire front line of about 900 kilometers, the Ukrainians have had success after success and the Russians have failed every single time,” Milley said.
Milley also warns China. Any Chinese attack on Taiwan would be as serious a strategic mistake as the Russian invasion of Ukraine. “I think it would not be wise – he articulated to the Pentagon – it would be a political error, a geopolitical error, a strategic error, similar to the strategic error that Putin made in Ukraine”, Milley specified, underlining that no attack on Taiwan is imminent.
The chief of staff said he believes Chinese President Xi Jinping, who just won a historic third term as the country’s supreme leader and has declared joining Taiwan with China as a top priority, is an “actor rational. I think he evaluates things on the basis of costs, benefits and risks and I think he would conclude that an attack on Taiwan in the near future would be too risky and end up in a strategic debacle for the Chinese military.”