Summary
[US debt “shock waves” one after another, the market expects the Fed to maintain stability]Recently, the “US debt turmoil” triggered volatility in global financial markets. According to industry insiders, U.S. bond yields and the stock market usually have a certain “seesaw” effect. When U.S. bond yields increase, more funds will flow to the bond market for risk-free returns, and the stock market will be under pressure to adjust. Data shows that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has recently fallen from the previous period, and analysts predict that its upward trend still exists. The next step for U.S. bond yields is to hit the “ceiling” or usher in a turning point. Whether the Federal Reserve, as the “receiver” of U.S. debt, will intervene, has become the focus of the global financial market. (China Securities Journal)
A few days ago, the “US debt turmoil” triggered global financialmarketfluctuation. According to industry insiders, U.S. bond yields and the stock market usually have a certain “seesaw” effect. When U.S. bond yields increase, more funds will flow to the bond market for risk-free returns, and the stock market will be under pressure to adjust.
Data shows that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has recently fallen from the previous period, and analysts predict that its upward trend still exists.The next step for U.S. bond yields is to hit the “ceiling” or usher in a turning point, as the “receiver” of U.S. debtMidlandWhether the reserve will intervene has become the focus of the global financial market.
Inflation expectations rise
The U.S. Treasury yields that began in August of last year rose, and became particularly violent in February of this year. Judging from the trend of the yield curve, after February this year, the “steep” feature has become more pronounced. Last week, the yield on the “benchmark” U.S. Treasury bond, namely the 10-year U.S. Treasury, broke through 1.6%, setting a record for nearly a year.
The surge in this data has set off an uproar in the global market, triggering violent fluctuations in global assets. Assets including US stocks and A shares have fallen.
What factors caused the sudden increase in U.S. bond yields? The industry generally believes that rising inflation expectations are the main reason, and the oversupply of U.S. debt issuance is also the driving factor behind it. Some analysts pointed out that the increase in inflation expectations is due to the rebound in global demand after the epidemic on the one hand, and the imminent implementation of a new round of US fiscal stimulus plan on the other hand, which has strengthened the market’s confidence in the recovery of the US economy.
In addition, multiple rounds of fiscal stimulus plans have sharply expanded the US fiscal deficit, the issuance of US debt has risen sharply, and the phenomenon of oversupply has become more prominent.A few days ago, the U.S. Treasury Department’s 62 billionU.S. dollarOf 7 yearsNational debtauctionThe bidding multiple was only 2.04, a new low level in more than a decade, and the demand for US debt dropped to a freezing point.
U.S. Treasury yields may rise further
For the market that has been “frightened” by the soaring U.S. Treasury yields, how the U.S. Treasury yields go next is crucial.
According to the current general forecasts of domestic and foreign institutions, the yields of U.S. Treasuries still have an upward trend.Many institutions predict that this round of risingaimsIn the range of 1.5%-1.9%, the extreme position will reach about 2%.
COFCOfuturesAnalysts believe that the US bond yield 1.7% has reached the top of this round. “in caseMidlandThe Chu continues to allow yields to rise. The impact of piercing the big bubble in US stocks is too large, and no one may be able to bear it. In addition, the 1.7% position has reached the level before the outbreak, and don’t forget that the economy is still going down even if the impact of the epidemic is excluded. Cycle, then the just recoveredReal economyIt’s hard to afford 2% financingcost. “The person said.
Bank of AmericachiefstockStrategist Subranmanian said that historical experience shows that when the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield breaks through 1.75%, it will be a turning point, and the stock market may experience the next round of selling.investmentThey will sell their stocks and return to the bond market.Because it reaches 1.75%, it means that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield exceeds the S&P 500Dividendsrate of return.
Ping An Securities Research Institute believes that the current inflation expectations implied by U.S. bond yields are already relatively sufficient.CICCMacroteamthink,short termDomestic U.S. debt is expected to have a temporary respite; looking forward to the next few quarters, U.S. debtinterest rateIt will continue to rise gradually, and it is expected that the U.S. Treasury yield may rebound to around 1.6%-1.9% in the fourth quarter.In the medium and long term, the upward pressure on U.S. inflation combined with fiscal expansion may push upinterest rateHub.
WaitMidlandReserve statement
As a major buyer of U.S. Treasury bonds, the Fed’s posture in the face of rising U.S. Treasury yields has become the core of many market participants looking for clues.
On March 4th, Fed Chairman Powell will attend the event and deliver a speech. In mid-March, the Federal Reserve will holdcurrencypolicymeeting. A few days ago, in the face of substantial market turmoil, many Fed executives said that the soaring U.S. bond yields reflect the market’s optimism about the U.S. economy and at the same time release the “doves” in monetary policy.attitude. However, many market participants expect that the Fed may change its position in the next statement.
Huachuang Securities pointed out that if the subsequent U.S. epidemic is brought under control soon, stimulus policies are implemented smoothly, and the economy is repaired sooner, U.S. Treasury yields may continue to rise. After U.S. Treasury yields return to their pre-epidemic levels, the Fed’s policy choice may become Important factors affecting the upward speed and magnitude of U.S. bond yields.
According to market analysts’ speculation, the Fed’s options include reversing operations and upward adjustments.Reserveinterest rateWait.What is highly anticipated is to reverse operations and further depress long-term debt by selling short-term debt and buying long-term debt.Bondinterest rate.Bank of AmericaStrategist Kabana pointed out that once the Fed implements a reverse operation, it will achieve the effect of “one stone and three birds”, raising short-term bond yields and suppressing long-term bond yields.bankIndustry to increase the capital adequacy ratio.
(Source: China Securities Journal)
(Editor in charge: DF512)
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