NATO has promised record-fast processing of membership applications from Sweden and Finland. Just over a week before the summit in Madrid, however, the situation looks deadlocked.
Turkey has asked one series of tough demands on the two Nordic countriesespecially Sweden, if they are not to veto.
There have been a number of threats and signals, and so far neither party has shaken.
If the process does not end in a NATO enlargement, it will mean a major crisis for the defense alliance.
Turkish victory
At the same time, Turkey has already won, says NTNU professor and expert on international politics, Jo Jakobsen.
– Turkey has had two main issues, one of which is to focus on Turkey’s security concerns. They’ve got it. Half the world has been concerned that Turkey has been treated unfairly, says Jakobsen, who describes Turkey as a “different country” in NATO.
NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg has also gone so far as to acknowledge that Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s security concerns are real.
In the throat of Red
Must have something more “concrete”
In a message on Twitter last week, Stoltenberg described a “constructive” conversation with Erdogan, where they had, among other things, discussed “the importance of addressing Turkey’s legitimate security concerns”.
EXPERT: Jo Jakobsen is Professor of Political Science at NTNU. He believes that Sweden and Finland will be incorporated into NATO. Photo: NTNU
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– These are really new tones from the Secretary General and NATO. It sends an important signal to Erdogan.
Thus, a solution to the situation can approach, says Jo Jakobsen.
Turkey can hardly expect to meet all the requirements, but they must also get something more “concrete”.
– As I see it, there are three things they can get back for this. One is arms exports. Here, the USA can be the key, Jakobsen explains.
– The biggest security threat in decades
Want American planes
In a recent interview with SVT, Kurt Volker, former US diplomat and NATO ambassador, points out that the stranded agreement on the purchase of the American fighter jets F-35.
Turkey was scheduled to buy the state-of-the-art aircraft, but this agreement stalled when Turkey bought the Russian defense system S-400. A delayed air defense system that will be difficult to integrate into NATO.
– There must be better solutions for the S-400 system so that the aircraft can be purchased. Some form of package solution, says the former top diplomat to SVT, according to Aftonbladetwho at the same time says that he believes in a solution.
MAY BE THE KEY: The American fighter planes F-35 can give Turkey the victory they want, according to a former top diplomat. Norway is among the countries that already use modern aircraft. Photo: Håkon Mosvold Larsen / NTB
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Can be a crucial arena
Jakobsen agrees that the American planes can be the decisive piece in the agreement between NATO and Turkey.
– But it can be a barrier here. It’s not as simple as President Biden can only decide this. Congress must be involved, he says.
The political scientist does not believe that an agreement must be in place before the summit in Madrid at the end of June, but that the meeting can be an important arena for the parties to get closer to each other.
– It is very natural to assume that this is where a solution can come. It is not necessarily a disaster if it does not happen there, if the parties slide closer to each other at the same time.
