Turkey’s historic presidential election looks set for a run-off vote after no candidate managed to secure an absolute majority. With around 52% of ballot papers counted, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who has ruled Turkey for two decades, had 43.7% of the vote, with main opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu on 30.9%. A third candidate won about 5% of the vote. If the current result is confirmed, a run-off between Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu will be held on 28 May. Erdogan had hoped to win in the first stage of voting. Turnout has been high, at 88.3%.
Kilicdaroglu ran on a platform of restoring Turkey’s democratic institutions and the rule of law in the face of Erdogan’s increasingly authoritarian style of government. The main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) and five smaller parties backed Kilicdaroglu amid concerns that Erdogan’s grip on power was stifling dissent and leading to economic stagnation. The beleaguered Turkish lira has lost some 20% against the dollar this year, while inflation currently stands at about 11%. Erdogan, however, promised voters both economic growth and a continuation of his building programme, which has seen the construction of bridges, tunnels and an airport.
The election has been seen as a test of Turkey’s secular identity, and has therefore generated significant international interest, particularly given reports of alleged electoral malpractice and Erdogan’s widening crackdown on the opposition and free press. Kilicdaroglu’s main goal, as he campaigned amid what he described as a climate of violence and intimidation against the opposition, was to unite Turkey’s polarised society by restoring stability to the country’s democratic institutions. He promised that his government would pursue sensible and responsible economic policies to end the country’s severe cost-of-living crisis. For his part, Erdogan sought to appeal to conservative voters by criticising opponents as dangerous to the state and a threat to Turkish national security.
The political and economic futures of Turkey and its wider region will now be shaped by the result of the imminent run-off vote. Erdogan has overseen a series of recent foreign policy decisions, including a military operation in Syria, closer cooperation with Russia and deepening ties with Iran, that have sparked concern among Turkey’s traditional western allies.
The election outcome could also see Erdogan extend his control over Turkey, with changes to the country’s constitution already having transferred significant powers to the president. A victory in the run-off would enable Erdogan to make further changes, effectively ending the post of prime minister and giving the president greater control over the judiciary and political appointments. Such moves would further cement concerns about the health of Turkish democracy, which has been eroded by a process of increased authoritarianism under Erdogan. The suppression of open political debate and criticism has led to the detention of tens of thousands of journalists, opposition politicians and other critics of the regime.
