Erdogan has attracted attention by “destroying the welcome party” for Finland and Sweden in NATO, as among others Foreign Policy describes it.
The 68-year-old, who has led Turkey since 2003, has made several demands not to stand in the way of the two Nordic countries’ applications for membership in the alliance. Among other things, he has demanded that Sweden expel alleged terrorists associated with the Kurdish PKK.
– Many of his PKK demands are well-known Turkish tones. But he has domestic reasons to speak out against the United States. The economy is down and his support is lower than ever, says Jonathan Eyal from the independent British think tank Rusi according to The Guardian.
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Partly isolated
Eyal is one of several analysts and commentators who believe one must look at Erdogan’s position at home to understand what lies behind the tough tone. After securing an increasingly strong grip on power for two decades, Erdogan is now weakened and partly isolated.
Several of the groups and institutions that previously supported him, he has become friends with, according to Klas Grinell at the Center for European Studies at the University of Gothenburg.
In a year’s time, there will be elections, and Erdogan and his Party for Justice and Development (AKP) are not in a good position.
– In the beginning, he created a deeper democratic foundation. Many thought it would mean democratic progress. But it did not last, says Grinell.
– Had he lost the election in 2011, he would have been seen as one of the great statesmen in the early 2000s, he believes.
Islamist against the secular
Erdogan was born in a poor district of Istanbul in 1954. According to cinemas, he made a living as a market salesman while making a career as a semi-professional football player.
At this time, it was the secular Kemalists, the heirs of the patriarch Kemal Atatürk, who dominated the country. Erdogan was an Islamist from a young age and joined a religious party that was banned in secularized Turkey.
In 1994, he was the first Islamist to be elected mayor of Istanbul. Four years later he was imprisoned for reciting a poem with the lines “Mosques are our barracks, believers our soldiers and minarets are our weapons.”
EU promotion
In 2001, he founded the AKP, which won a clear majority in the Turkish National Assembly the following year. He himself could not become prime minister until the National Assembly had lifted a ban on him running for office. In 2003, he was elected head of government in a by-election.
Prime Minister Erdogan intensified his efforts to bring Turkey into the EU, he opened up to strengthen the rights of the Kurds and supported infrastructure projects. He wanted to help the large poor population in the countryside.
Challenged the military
In the elections in 2007 and 2011, the AKP secured almost 50 percent of the votes. Erdogan was the obvious leader, without rivals. He challenged the military and the judiciary. He pushed through a law that allowed women to wear shawls, to the indignation of secularists.
After four terms as prime minister, Erdogan could no longer stand for election, according to party rules. Instead, he ran as a presidential candidate, and after securing the post in 2014, he began work to expand power to a position that until then had been most symbolic.
After surviving a bloody coup in 2016, he succeeded in getting through the constitutional amendments that gave the president more power.
In an authoritarian direction
But while Erdogan’s formal power is stronger than ever, he has become increasingly isolated. He accused his former collaborators in the Gülen movement of being behind the military coup.
Corruption allegations have been made against his children, among other things. Several who have been close to him have been pushed out. Erdogan has once again turned against the Kurds. A number of regime critics and journalists have been imprisoned and the country is now ranked among the world’s worst in terms of press freedom. Turkey has become increasingly authoritarian.
Shaky economy
At the same time, the economy is faltering. Inflation is now close to 70 per cent, and the Turkish lira has fallen sharply in value. Critics say Erdogan is responsible for the situation through several unconventional economic measures.
Many believe they have received something from Erdogan, points out Grinell at the University of Gothenburg.
– But Turkey has gone from almost no private loans to very high private lending for, among other things, homes and cars. In a way, one can say that the people are deceived and have pledged themselves. It becomes clear now when the currency falls and the loan economy collapses, he says.
(©NTB)
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