(CNN) — Some computer model forecasts show that Tropical Storm Henri would make landfall in the northeastern US But not all models agree, and the official forecast says Henri will remain offshore. Still, the cone of uncertainty includes parts of New England where, even if it doesn’t make landfall, it could bring flooding and tropical-storm-force winds to the region over the weekend.
“Storm surge could reach much of the US East Coast and Atlantic Canada by the end of the week and continue into the weekend. These storm surge could cause potentially deadly swells and rip currents.” said Dennis Feltgen, public affairs official for the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
The NHC forecast cone for Henri includes parts of Massachusetts. Recent model guidance shows a trend to the left (west), where the storm would hit New England the most.
“There is a lot of uncertainty, more than usual, in Henri’s trajectory forecast this weekend and early next. As it stands now, there is some risk of direct hits from Henri in parts of the northeastern US and Atlantic Canada during that time period, “Feltgen said.
The disagreement in the models is increasing the uncertainty of the trajectory, impacted by the models that vary in their interpretation of the climatic patterns of the upper levels.
“A complicating factor is that several of the models show a ridge over the Northwest Atlantic and Atlantic Canada, which could cause the storm to stay on a path further north, closer to New England than it is expected to be. currently forecast, “the NHC said.
The NHC said the extent of the models’ trajectory for Henri is “quite large,” with some showing the system hitting New York’s Long Island and others taking it further east into the Atlantic.
The US forecast model shows Henri hitting New England like a hurricane this weekend.
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Henri’s trajectory will ultimately depend on the strengthening of the ridge and the subsequent low pressure valley that would form over the eastern states. Both characteristics are responsible for directing the storm.
“This complex interaction is prone to significant errors so far in time, so caution is advised not to rely on a particular model solution, as we will likely see variations in the next few days,” said the National Weather Service (NWS ) in Boston.
The European forecasting model shows little indication of Henri, with little impact in the Northeast.
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National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration flight missions and special weather balloon soundings are underway in the hope that this additional data will help the models handle the evolving directional pattern, the NHC said.
Even National Weather Service offices as far away as Green Bay, Wisconsin, are scheduling additional balloon launches to help.
This data collected from the atmosphere will be used in future computer model runs and should help forecasters know where this storm may go.
Henri was south of Bermuda and moving west at 8mph on Wednesday afternoon. The track is expected to turn right at the end of the week and travel north along the northeast coast.
Henri currently has maximum sustained winds of 105 km / h and is classified as a tropical storm, but forecasters expect it to strengthen by the end of the week, possibly into a hurricane.
Henri’s potential impacts in New England
Regardless of whether Henri makes landfall in the United States, it will bring storm impacts. This weekend’s tides in the area are high, meaning storm surge flooding and coastal erosion could be a concern.
“While we cannot rule out a more direct impact, we are more confident in the high surf along ocean beaches and rough seas offshore,” NWS Boston said.
Some parts of New England also have the potential to experience tropical storm force winds this weekend.
“This is a good time to make sure you have a hurricane plan as well as supplies,” Feltgen said.
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