Practicing trader and resident of ForkLog Hub Pavel Gromov, also known as the “Chief by crypt”, talks about the current market situation.
On March 8, cryptocurrency traders will remember for a long time. The collapse of bitcoin by more than 1000 points, the drop in capitalization by 15%, the massive liquidation of marginal positions – this is a brief description of what was happening on the market.
By updating the local minimum below $ 7,700, Bitcoin still bounced above $ 7,900. But the first cryptocurrency has not yet managed to rise above $ 8000. Now there is every chance to re-test $ 7800.
Why, despite the excellent fundamental data and the positive news background, did Bitcoin start looking for the bottom? Failed to break through $ 9,200 fast enough? This argument pulls back to $ 8900- $ 8700, and not to collapse.
Wind blows from traditional markets again
Firstly, the markets perceived the offer of Saudi Arabia for discounts for large oil buyers as the beginning of a price war against Russia in connection with the failure of the OPEC + deal on Friday. Given that oil demand is already declining due to coronavirus, this could lead to a drop of up to $ 20 per barrel.
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Why are all the stock markets falling, including countries that will benefit from lower oil prices?
- The decline in oil prices is associated with an economic downturn. Against the background of coronavirus, this is perceived by investors as another alarm.
- US shale companies have large debts to banks. With a shoulder, of course. Lower oil prices reduce the cost of collateral and lead to default. Mass defaults of large borrowers are bank defaults and collapse or the need for emergency measures.
And again the PlusToken pyramid
This weekend again, as in mid-February, 13,000 BTC from PlusToken were transferred to the mixers. Earlier, I said that the fall of Bitcoin on February 14-15 was caused by the sale of PlusToken assets.
$ 117 Million PlusToken Pyramid Bitcoin Assets Sent to Mixers
Several factors coincided in the thin market during the weekend – panic in traditional markets over the history of oil and large sales of PlusToken assets. Force Majeure, which there was no chance to resist.
What to expect next?
In the medium term, Bitcoin will be fine. Regulators and courts, one after another, recognize bitcoin as a financial asset (Germany, France), the hash of the network updates highs, and halving is approaching.
In the short term, if the US session today does not go above $ 8000, then there is a possibility of a fall to $ 7500.
The flagship of growth in traditional markets could be China:
- tomorrow, restrictions on the operation of enterprises end there;
- stock market growth is possible, since for the Chinese economy lowering oil prices is a blessing.
In the case of a positive scenario, Bitcoin can quickly return above $ 8500. Then we can talk about the resumption of growth.
Today, I see the consolidation in the range of $ 8000- $ 8200 as the most positive scenario. Negative – updating local lows below $ 7,700. The denouement will come during the American session.
What do the graphs say?
BTC could not break through $ 9,200, the price did not reach the expected $ 9400- $ 9600. The risks of complicating the correction were confirmed:
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Attention!
Forecasts of financial markets are the private opinion of their authors. Current analysis is not a guide to trade. ForkLog and Pavel Gromov are not responsible for the results of work that may arise when using trading recommendations from the submitted reviews.
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