Trade recovery between China and the rest of the world will not be immediate

Europe is not alone in suffering the effects of the slowdown in the Chinese economy, the second largest economy in the world. Plant closings longer than originally planned and other restrictions imposed by the authorities have reduced production considerably.

Major international shipping companies such as A.P. Møller – Mærsk A / S, CMA CGM SA or Evergreen Marine Corp have either lowered or canceled ferries. Trade flows between Chinese and European ports are unlikely to return to their previous levels anytime soon.

The effects of the coronavirus on trade flows between the EU, the UK and China can be particularly critical in the container, dry bulk and oil tanker trade.

The current economic outlook does not allow us to be optimistic in the short term, only time will tell whether Chinese and international efforts are proving effective or not to contain the spread of the coronavirus.

On the other hand, the application of the first phase of the recent trade agreement between the United States and China could be severely affected by the development of the epidemic in China, a situation that the actors had not foreseen at the time. of the signing of the agreement.

Travel restrictions and other preventive measures should have been put in place earlier by national governments. The World Health Organization did not respond to the epidemic in time: the global health emergency was declared only on January 30, 2020.

Despite this situation, one can be optimistic: new vaccine trials are underway and the volume of goods transported between Europe and China will return to previous levels once the pandemic is finally brought under control.

By Jonatan Echebarria Fernández, lecturer at City University of London, expert in commercial and maritime law