The communal holiday is coming to an end, and soon many Norwegians will return to everyday life. This leads to increased activity in the population, and a greater risk of the spread of infection.
It is still not certain that there will be a strong autumn wave in Norway, as has been seen in the last two years.
– It may be that we get an increase in the infection when people return from holiday, but it is uncertain how extensive this wave will be, says Geir Bukholm, assistant director of the Institute of Public Health.
– FOLLOWS: FHI follows closely how the infection develops in Norway and the rest of the world. Photo: Bjørnar Varpeide / TV 2
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The wave comes later
The coronavirus has ravaged both Norway and Europe this summer, but in several places the infection is now well on its way down.
– The summer wave has subsided in the last three weeks. This development also continued last week, says Bukholm.
As there has been a lot of infection this summer, FHI believes that we will have a somewhat later autumn wave than previously.
– Regardless of whether the infection increases slightly after the holidays, we think it is likely that we will have a late autumn wave, and possibly a winter wave, says Bukholm.
Two important factors
The most important factor that determines whether the infection will flourish again this autumn is how long the immunity lasts in the population.
– We know that immunity against infection decreases within a few months, and then we will easily be able to get a new wave, says Bukholm.
– GOOD PROTECTION: FHI believes that the population still has good protection against corona. Photo: Aage Aune / TV 2
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There is still a small risk that this will cause many people to become very ill.
– The disease burden effect of such new waves is becoming increasingly weaker because the population’s protection against serious disease is constantly improving, partly due to vaccination and partly due to previous illness, says Bukholm.
In addition, it will be decisive whether one will eventually get new virus variants, which are more contagious and bypass the immunity in the population.
– If the new virus variants are similar to the variants we see now, the effect may not be so great, but if the new variants deviate a lot, the effect will be greater, says Bukholm.
Several will get a fourth stab
To ensure that the population is well protected against serious illness, FHI has recommended that everyone over the age of 75 take a fourth dose.
So far, over 128,000 have taken their fourth injection, and it is expected that this will increase in the coming weeks.
– VACCINATION: Several municipalities are in the process of vaccinating with the fourth dose. Photo: Ingrid Wollberg / TV 2
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Bukholm says that those between 65 and 74 will also be offered a fourth injection, but that it is still unclear when this will happen.
– There are several possibilities here. One option is to give this during September or October, or they can get an offer after we have finished with the over 75 age group, says Bukholm.
In Great Britain, the health authorities have decided that everyone over the age of 50 will be offered a fourth dose. In Denmark, too, plans are being made so that everyone over the age of 50 can take a fourth injection.
– Why would this age group not be offered a fourth dose in Norway?
– We see that the group under the age of 65 is still very well protected against serious illness, says Bukholm.
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