/ world today news/ Donald Trump won the first primary election of the Republican Party in New Hampshire. However, the elites of the Republican Party will not give up and are preparing for another battle. If they get their way, Trump will lose his freedom of maneuver in policy and seriously risk his life.
What Donald Trump’s second presidency will be is a difficult question. It will most likely not live up to the hopes of many of his supporters, just as it did not live up to the first presidency. The “Washington swamp” – the union of the elite and the bureaucracy – will again be stronger than the eccentric New York billionaire and will not allow him to do anything significant.
But with Trump’s latest challenger on the road to a rematch against incumbent Joe Biden, it’s clear as day. Nikki Haley is the candidate of the same “Washington swamp”, the candidate of the political elites and party bosses, the candidate of the Wall Street oligarchs and the Pentagon hawks. The candidate of everyone in the Republican Party who united against the “Trumpists”.
The majority in this party is for Trump, that’s what all the polls show. Even Biden has no doubts that he will have to deal with Trump in the final. However, this does not make the tasks that the “Washington Swamp” set for Haley impossible. It makes them more complicated and complicated.
She can’t beat Trump in the primaries, but she could force a long-term battle that will drain him of resources and demonstrate the party’s split into a “Trumpist” majority and a still-sizable minority of “traditionalists”—those who believe that Republicans should be more like Bush Jr.
In the US political tradition, significant party divisions during presidential elections are usually resolved by the winner inviting the loser to a high-profile post – usually vice president, less commonly secretary of state.
Simply put, they will try to impose Haley on Trump as his vice, not forgetting to emphasize that she will attract additional voters to him as a woman, a national minority (ancestors from India) and a supporter of an aggressive foreign policy. From the point of view of political strategists, this makes practical sense, although the main task of the “Washington Swamp” is, of course, to balance Trump and have his man next to his right ear.
And if something really bad happens to the president, his powers will pass to the vice president until the next election. That is, it is a potentially dangerous game for Trump, but for his enemies, and for Haley personally, it is worth it – they can win without risking almost anything.
Therefore, Haley is trying very hard, will continue to try, and can count on serious support from influential and very unexpected forces, right up to her nominal opponents – the Democrats.
The fact is that in primaries they vote not according to their party card (Americans, strictly speaking, do not have the usual party cards at all), but for whoever. A Democratic Party supporter may choose to vote in internal Republican elections with the intention of benefiting their own party. It used to be considered base to do something like that. But in modern times, these are far from the most nefarious methods of political technology.
Officially, it can be said that in the state of New Hampshire, the anti-Trump coalition lost with a result of 55% to 43% in favor of Trump. This was the first primary election (before that Iowa had a so-called “caucus” where only representatives of party branches actually vote) and it was held in an unfortunate place, too liberal for the nuclear electorate of “Trumpists”. The former president’s position in New Hampshire was considered mixed, so 12% is a very good margin.
However, Haley received one and a half times more votes than predicted. Therefore, the result of the primaries for her guardians and sponsors can be called good: 55 to 43 is not a defeat, just the division necessary for intrigues with the vice presidential post.
The results for Trump could have been even worse if Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis had not dropped out of the presidential race in his favor on the eve of the primary. He ran an expensive and pointless campaign, during which he lost his considerable previous ratings. He didn’t really have a choice, but he backed out in time and allowed Trump to defeat Haley in the primary by a landslide.
Trump appreciated this and announced that the nickname Ron Desanctimonious (sort of like “The Liar”) was “officially retired.” This “turn” appeared in the speeches of the former president after the rift with the governor of Florida: then Trump did not forgive Desantis for his own presidential ambitions, but we will find out later if he really forgave him now.
DeSantis is clearly banking on a significant post in the Trump administration, as his current term as governor is his last. Most likely, he also wants to become vice president, but is willing to settle for a smaller role.
Black senator Tim Scott and businessman Vivek Ramaswamy also want to become vice president. They withdrew from the election in favor of Trump even earlier and in time too.
Scott was expected to hold out longer – at least until the vote in South Carolina, where he is a senator. South Carolina is the site of the next primary and another battle between Haley and Trump. And it’s her home state — the state where she was born, raised and served as governor for six years. So the support of a senator from the same state is a useful gift for Trump.
Both Ramaswamy (who spent the entire Trump campaign praising himself and calling for the Russian-speaking part of Ukraine to be ceded to Russia) and Scott personally came to New Hampshire to congratulate Trump and illustrate the party’s unity around him – despite Haley.
Now, with the maximum concentration of resources on each side of the conflict, the South Carolina primary promises to take on the character of a heated battle with volleys of all weapons. This is not expected from internal republican elections, where the winner is known in advance, but the intensity of passions is determined by the personality of the candidates.
Both are hated by many, both are for the cause. But the main thing is that one of them personifies the disgusting elite, and the second is its enemy, even if in practice it cannot harm its interests, and instead of draining the “Washington Swamp”, it will drown in it itself.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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