On Tuesday, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi stated that his country is not a party to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and that they do not want to be sanctioned.
– Beijing rejects sanctions on principle. China has the right to protect its legitimate rights and interests, he said.
Professor Jo Jakobsen at the Department of Sociology and Political Science at NTNU, does not think that China had imagined that Russia’s war in Ukraine would be as extensive as it has becomet.
– The war in Ukraine has become more violent than what China wanted, Jakobsen says to Dagbladet.
At the same time, he does not think that China is so worried about what is going on – not even when it comes to the economic aspects.
– Even though they dislike the extent of the war, China probably believes that this will go well, and that it will stabilize quickly, he elaborates.
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– Survives
Jakobsen believes we now “stand with both legs planted in a period that will be marked by great power conflict”.
– The great power conflict has moved a few notches up now, and in it China has a central role, so the country’s positioning in this war probably also indicates much of how big they think the conflict is, says Jacobsen.
“They probably expect Russia and the Putin regime to survive,” he said.
– An impossible «trilemma»
– Stronger together
According to the professor, China has no desire to interfere in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine – which he believes in many ways is also a conflict between Russia and the United States, the West and NATO.
– China is vague about interference, and trampling on other countries’ sovereignty. This is something they dislike about the West’s behavior in other countries, he says.
– So why are they sitting on the fence a bit and watching what is happening?
– Yes, China primarily focuses on its own economic growth, and wants less involvement globally in crises, Jakobsen answers.
– They often have terribly long-term plans here, he continues.
– And what are those plans?
– My interpretation is that China’s top interest in the overall geopolitical game – where the struggle for a new world role, with new rules of the game both politically, ideologically and economically – is to change something of the American-led world.
He continues:
– And in those battles there, which are long-running battles, the relationship between China and Russia has come closer. The countries have many overlapping interests and are also stronger together.
– Therefore, I expect that almost no matter what happens in Ukraine, China will hold on to Russia, the professor says.
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– No limit
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said yesterday that the Ukraine war was a result of “the accumulation and escalation of European security conflicts over the years.”
The foreign minister did not respond to US allegations that Russia had asked China for economic and military assistance since the war began, as a spokesman for the Chinese Foreign Ministry had previously called “malicious US disinformation”.
Professor Jakobsen believes that if China openly supports China financially on the cost side of the war, then the United States / West will hold the country responsible for it.
– China and the United States are closely intertwined economically, and China is aware that they risk being hit by sanctions, and persistent problems if they support Russia financially. At the same time, there is a limit to how much they can actually be punished for this, he says.
PROFESSOR: Professor Jo Jakobsen at the Department of Sociology and Political Science at NTNU-
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A possible Chinese military support for Russia will be more dramatic, the professor believes, because China has no desire to become a participating party in this war.
– Then it would quickly become “Russia and China against the United States and the West,” he elaborates.
– And then the conflict becomes so very visible. The West is already heavily involved in the Ukraine war, but China has no interest in being seen as a Russian military backer. Then the consequences would quickly become far more, he says.
Fear of great war
– Rock-solid friendship
At the end of last week, Chinese Prime Minister Li Keqiang said that the situation in Ukraine was gloomy, and offered Beijing’s help in working for peace, according to NTB.
– We support and encourage all attempts that promote a peaceful solution to the crisis. The urgent task now is to prevent the tension from escalating or even getting out of control, Li said.
In recent weeks, there has been speculation from several quarters as to whether China can or will play a diplomatic role in the war.
Professor Jakobsen believes, however, that this is not really particularly desirable for China.
– There are no strong indications that they want a diplomatic role here, he says, and continues:
– As mentioned, China has no tradition of interfering in other countries’ conflicts, and has, for example, been reluctant in the Middle East, Syria and the Arab Spring.
In the geopolitical game, however, relations between Russia and China have become greater, he further points out – and points out that they, among other things, “coordinate in important matters at the UN”.
– They have developed a close relationship over time, and China has publicly stated that the friendship is rock solid and will continue with it. Even though they are not so happy about the extent of the Ukraine war, it is important for China to maintain the relationship, Jakobsen believes.
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