On Sunday, French Foreign Minister Sebastien Lecornu told Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu that France refuses to be involved in any kind of escalation of the conflict in Ukraine. especially when it comes to nuclear weapons.
Dagbladet told NTNU professor Jo Jakobsen about it.
– The interesting thing is the little words. The first part appears to be extremely unfortunate. If this reflects France’s position, there is division in NATO, Jakobsen tells Dagbladet and continues:
– The last part proves once again that the French talk too much, especially Macron. It is quite clear that other European leaders think he talks too much.
“Shut up, Macron”
The professor notes that French President Emmanuel Macron recently said so France will not respond with nuclear weapons if Russia attacks Ukraine or the region with nuclear weapons.
– In a sense, France is right. It will take a long time for NATO to respond with nuclear weapons. In this sense Macron says things as they are. But critics will probably say, “Shut up, Macron. You don’t have to talk about it openly,” says Jakobsen.
The point of deterrence is to convince the other party that you are capable and willing to respond to an attack in a way that makes costs greater than profits. This is to prevent the other side from making the attack. If this logic is followed, it is not necessarily wise for Macron to clarify what France is not prepared to do.
– I also saw that Macron added some words: “… Ukraine or region”. This violates NATO’s overall nuclear weapons policy, as there are NATO countries in that region which are protected by the United States and NATO nuclear weapons.
Jakobsen makes a reservation.
– I must reserve that in a radio interview you can say things you would rather not say, and that may have been the case here. But even so, it creates uncertainty among NATO allies in the Baltics, Eastern and Central Europe.
HEAD OF NATO: Jens Stoltenberg. Photo: Bjørn Langsem / Dagbladet
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France out of step
The United States has repeated to Russia that if it attacks Ukraine with a tactical nuclear weapon, it will have “catastrophic consequences”. While NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said he will not say how NATO will respond to such an attack, partly because the response will depend on the attack.
Stoltenberg also said such a nuclear strike would have “serious consequences”. At the same time, he informed Russia that a nuclear war cannot be won, and therefore must not take place.
– Do you think that France’s approach to deterrence is different from NATO’s approach to deterrence?
– The little words of Lecornu and Macron differ from the words of NATO. This creates some uncertainty in NATO, Jakobsen replies.
– Is this a difficult question for Stoltenberg and NATO?
– This is a very difficult issue for both Stoltenberg, NATO and the US. The question is difficult even without these statements from France. It is rational for NATO to say it will respond brutally if Russia attacks Ukraine with a tactical nuclear weapon, but it is not necessarily rational to implement it. This is because it could lead to real nuclear war.
– Complicates the picture that France deviates from the NATO line. NATO wishes not to show its cards in advance, while France is doing just that. That’s where the collision is. But there is no doubt that this is an extreme dilemma, even without the signals from France.
Stoltenberg received questions from Macron
In an interview with Stoltenberg on Tuesday, Deutsche Welle reporter Sarah Kelly said what many thought: Macron’s statement didn’t do much to discourage them, did it?
– We can answer in different ways, it does not have to be with nuclear weapons. What we have repeatedly said is that we are a long way from the kind of circumstances necessary for NATO to consider the use of nuclear weapons. But that doesn’t hinder the possibility of NATO and our allies responding if Russia attacks Ukraine with nuclear weapons, Stoltenberg replied and continued:
– And again, if someone attacks one of our allies, we have the whole alliance, Article 5 and the collective defense clause, and the aim is to prevent that from happening.
– Unpleasant scenario and dilemma
Professor Jakobsen absolutely does not believe that NATO will respond with nuclear weapons if Russia attacks Ukraine with a tactical nuclear weapon.
– The Americans, who are the most important player in the West, have said that if Russia uses a tactical nuclear weapon, it will have catastrophic consequences. Presumably this implies a threat to use conventional weapons, not nuclear weapons, he says and continues:
– This is what the US is reporting, and what they have certainly reported directly to Russia as well: “You don’t have to. We mean business. We will engage directly in the war in Ukraine.”
Jakobsen says he can understand Macron’s attitude.
– The use of conventional weapons also carries enormous escalation potential. The big question is how rational it is to somehow answer if Russia uses a tactical nuclear weapon. It is an extremely unpleasant scenario and a dilemma for both parties. In a game like this, things can go very badly.
