Long columns of Russian military vehicles, tanks, artillery and other weapons continue to move away from the Donbas, and into southwest Ukraine.
It reports British intelligencewhich also claims that a larger number of Russian soldiers will be redeployed to Crimea, “almost certainly” to support the forces in Kherson.
The Ukrainians have been loudly announcing a counter-offensive in the southern region for several weeks. They have attacked important bridges and Russian weapons depots. The aim is to regain Ukrainian control over the southern region.
If that happens, it will be a major defeat for Russia, according to Tom Røseth, associate professor and principal lecturer in intelligence at the Norwegian Defense Academy, but it will demand a lot from the Ukrainians.
– It will show that they have initiative in the war, and be a powerful sign that the Russians are struggling, Røseth tells Dagbladet.
However, the Russians have positioned themselves well, he believes, and an urban war here could prove challenging for the Ukrainians.
– But with the new weapons, it is not impossible.
“The Shadow Army”:- Very important
Strategically important region
Control over Kherson is strategically important for several reasons:
Whoever controls the region also controls the outlet of the Dnipro River into the Black Sea, which has consequences for the Ukrainian economy. If the Ukrainians succeed in the reconquest, they will also be able to move on towards Russian-controlled Crimea.
– Indirectly, it could also open up the opportunity to advance further, to take back the nuclear power plant in Enerhodar, and threaten the land bridge between Donbas and Crimea, explains the associate professor.
STRATEGICALLY IMPORTANT: That’s what Tom Røseth at the Norwegian Defense Academy thinks. Photo: The Norwegian Armed Forces
sea view
He refers to the battle for Kherson as “a battle for the initiative”, with two relatively unknown factors:
Ukraine has kept its cards close to its chest about its own defense capabilities. We also do not know to what extent the Russians will prioritize defending themselves in this area, and to what extent they redeploy from Donbas, or use newly recruited and inexperienced forces from Russia.
– There are x-factors that will determine the timeline for any Ukrainian success. If Moscow has to prioritize, as it has had to in the past, it may be that Kherson has a lower priority than Donbas.
Røseth thinks he sees signs that the Ukrainian offensive in Kherson is underway. He does not believe that the advance warning is a diversionary maneuver.
On the other hand, he considers it a wise operational move
– If they make the opponent spread their forces, they will not be able to break through in one place as easily. The Russians have struggled earlier in the war with too wide a front, he says.
– They also get to mobilize their own population against a specific military target, which is important in a critical phase, which they are now in, as well as show their international supporters that they are using the weapons they have been given successfully.
