The three crises on Xi Jinping’s horizon

08/05/2022 – 14:04 Updated: 05/08/2022 – 14:05

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The effects of the maritime jamming of global supply chains are already being felt at various levels. In the last week of April, the Shanghai stock market has plummeted 5% and the Chinese economy as a whole is beginning to slow down its growth.

The geopolitical problems caused by the war in Ukraine, a covid pandemic expanding and the logistics bottleneck they represent a battery of unprecedented concerns for Xi Jinping. In addition, the Chinese president faces the Communist Party Congress this year, which will have to confirm him, for the third time, at the helm of the Asian superpower.

covid 0 strategy, which consists of forced confinements to stop the spread of the virus, has caused a decoupling of the progress of the Chinese economy with the recovery of the world economy. The economic cost is very high, because it implies paralyzing the activity of entire regions, as is happening in Shanghai, even with few cases detected.

For the Chinese president, stability is a priority and as many factors out of control could taint his goal of achieving his third term as Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party. So the new wave of covid may become the black swan of 2022, although the main sufferer of a bad year in China could be Russia.

Western sanctions on Russia for the invasion of Ukraine have made China an increasingly important trading partner for Moscow. Lockdowns in China have led to a 20% drop in oil demand, but a slowdown in the Chinese economy could be one of the obstacles in the boundless friendship between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin.

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The effects of the maritime jamming of global supply chains are already being felt at various levels. In the last week of April, the Shanghai stock market has plummeted 5% and the Chinese economy as a whole is beginning to slow down its growth.

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