The RIVM takes into account that the third wave will be shorter and that the number of IC admissions at the peak will be less than previously predicted. This is evident from the latest calculation by the RIVM, which News hour has recognized.
This new prognosis was discussed by RIVM last Friday, and will be discussed next Wednesday during the RIVM briefing in the House of Representatives.
On March 19, the RIVM still thought that there would be a peak around May 1, with about 1,400 people in the ICU. After that, the numbers would decline again. The new graph, published last Friday, April 2, shows that RIVM expects the peak to reach its peak earlier, namely somewhere in mid-April. In total there would then be about 800 people in the ICUs, considerably less than according to the models from two weeks ago.
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The graph of April 2.
RIVM
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In the older chart, from March 19, the wave lasted even longer. The peak would be reached a little before May 1, with about 1,400 people in the ICUs.
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The chart of March 19.
RIVM
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OMT member Marc Bonten: ‘As far as we are concerned, the situation is not much different’
OMT member Marc Bonten explains News hour pleased with the forecast, but does have reservations. According to him, this new prognosis is a result of the fact that the number of infections in recent weeks ‘has not flown out of the corner’.
“So I also make a few comments on this positive graph,” says Bonten. “This is on the assumption that many people will be vaccinated in the coming weeks. The second condition is that we do not relax. Finally, the measures must be enforced and people must comply with them as much as possible.”
If one or more of these sides are disappointing or change, we will still run into problems, according to Bonten. Bonten, for example, states that the number of IC beds used has risen to 746 in recent days. “That will influence the next prediction, which will look slightly different.”
Bonten does not yet see an opportunity for easing, partly because the R-number is still above 1.
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