Mr. At Pisanwanich, director of the International Trade Study Center University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce She said Thailand’s exports in 2023 expected to expand -0.5%-1.5%, lowest growth in 3 years It represents $295,203 million, with an average median of 1%, valued at $290,819-296,665 million.
Major export markets decreased year-over-year, such as the United States down to 0.6% from 14.5%, Japan down 0.3% from 0.8%, the European Union down 0.1 % from 7.7% and ASEAN to 1.2%. from 13.1% etc.
Thai exports have 7 key risk factors.is 1. The global economy and trading partners are slowing down. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects global GDP to grow by just 2.7%, down from 3.2% a year earlier. While global trade has grown by 1% this year, less than the 3.5% of the previous year. 2. Russo-Ukrainian warStill protracted throughout the year, causing global GDP to disappear by 0.4-1% and dragging Thailand’s export value to disappear by 0.7-1.7% or valued at $2,011-5,028 million or 72,396- 181,008 million baht
3. Oil prices are still high, averaging $80-120 a barrel. Why China uses more oil after opening up the country. Uncertain weather affects energy demand in Europe and OPEC cuts production by 2 million barrels per day. 4. Inflation is still high at 1-3%, but could decrease according to the direction of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). .) and central banks of other countries The baht is expected to move at the level of 35-36 baht per dollar amortized from the previous year’s average of $ 35.1 per barrel
5. The prices of raw materials and products will increase by 14%. from war problems 6. The Fed could keep inflation below its 2% target. With an interest rate increase in the range of 5.00-5.25%, it is the highest in 15 years. and 7. Conflicts between China and the United States.It will cause trade retaliatory measures that will affect global and Thai industries such as the semiconductor industry Phones, electrical appliances, clothes, shoes, seafood, automobiles, etc.
It must also followThe impact of China’s opening upAs to how it will affect Thai exports? If COVID does not spread to China, it will have a positive effect, increasing the value of exports to the Chinese market by 33,336-41,652 million baht. But if the COVID outbreak in China AND the government is so ineffective in controlling the epidemic that it has to shut down the country again. may affect the value of Thai exports lost 4896-24120 million baht
Including having to followForeign environmental, health and social measures that will also affect Thai exports in 2023 Especially in the case of 1. The European Union will apply the law on deforestation-free property. This could affect the export of rubber and palm oil products, livestock and products. and Thai coffee Because the EU has previously said such industries are encroaching on forests.
2. The Clean Competition Act (CCA), a US carbon tax that goes into effect January 1, 2024, will affect refined petroleum products, fertilizers, petrochemicals, cement, steel, aluminum , glass, paper and ethanol, etc.
3. EU Cross-Border Carbon Adjustment (CBAM) Which will come into force on 1 January 2023, which will cover products in the group of iron, steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizers, electricity, chemicals and plastics, hydrogen, etc.
4. Levying of new plastic packaging taxes in the United States (effective date not yet set), which will affect products in the plastic packaging category.
