On TV 2’s traditional super poll before the election, Jonas Gahr Støre’s dream government gets the narrowest possible majority with 85 seats. The left gets a total of 102 seats while the bourgeoisie ends up with 67.
TV 2 and Kantar have merged all the opinion polls we have recorded in the period 2 August to 11 September. The survey consists of a total of 9903 respondents and 40 per cent of the respondents were interviewed in the last week.
In 2017, the corresponding super poll was the one that hit closest to the election result itself.
Although Støre is poised to become prime minister, the Labor Party, together with the Conservatives and the Green Party, are the big losers in this poll.
Compared with the election four years ago, the Labor Party is down 3.8 percentage points to 23.6 percent. It will be the party’s weakest election since 1924.
The right falls most of all with a decline of 5.2 points. 19.8 percent will be the party’s weakest result since 2009.
Frp drops 4.5 points to 10.7. The party must go back to 1993 to find a worse election.
The Labor Party will lose 24.6% of its voters from 2017 while the Conservatives will lose as much as 28.4%. Even worse is the situation for FRP, which loses 29.8% of voters.
In total, these parties give 537,000 to other parties, which has contributed to a record-breaking voter turnout.
A total of 836,000 voters have changed party since the election four years ago.
The Center Party is close to its best support since the EU-influenced election in 1993, while SV can end up with its best election in 20 years. Red will make their best choice ever, if the poll is correct.
Big difference between women and men
While women in the 70s were most conservative, the situation has been turned upside down in recent times. This survey shows that women by a clear margin prefer the left and Jonas Gahr Støre to the bourgeois side.
But even if men were allowed to decide, there would be no majority for the blues.
Compared to 2017, the second group increases significantly in this survey. It is first and foremost Vidar Kleppe’s Democrats who lift this group with 1.2 percent of the vote. However, the party has never been close to a parliamentary seat in this election campaign.
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