Germany returned to overtake the a thousand deaths linked to the coronavirus in 24 hours, while the new cases of contagion are 21,237, for a total of 1,808,647. The 36,537 victims recorded since the beginning of the epidemic make the Germany that has just tremble the lockdown extended to January 31, extending it by three weeks. Nurseries, schools and universities will remain closed. In the outbreak areas, travel will be limited. The goal is to return to 50 infections per 100 thousand inhabitants. Germany virtuous at the beginning of the pandemic and even in the early stages of this second wave she finds herself scared and helpless in the face of a virus that looks no one in the face. A bit like happened in Veneto, which found itself with record-breaking numbers(up to 5,000, today there are 3,638) after that in the first wave it was seen as a model to follow for the containment of infections.
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The Merkel model
In Germany the carpet pads, ICU beds almost doubled elhigh spending on health, indicated as the three secrets of the Merkel model they were not enough to stop the number of infections and victims, which increased exponentially day by day. The German bankruptcy was probably affected by the lightweight lockdown (schools, shops, essential activities open, closed bars, restaurants, cinemas, theaters, swimming pools) decided by Germany last November 2nd, perhaps even belatedly since the infections were already growing because the virus was circulating. Those measures weren’t enough said Angela Merkel, who has always advocated the need for tougher restrictions.
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What happened in Germany
But what happened in Germany? Several factors have to be considered. First of all the average age of the infected in the second wave it rose, now the virus is affecting the most vulnerable: in fact, one in two deaths is over 80 years old. Germany, with Italy, the country ofand the most advanced media in Europe. If in the first wave the outbreaks were in families returning from holidays in the mountains and in carnival parties with a low average age of the infected, in the second wave the virus also arrived in the RSA. Another factor that explains the current high German mortality is the bankruptcy of local health offices to carry on the tracing of the infected. Already in October Merkel had denounced the Gesundheitsaemter crisis, the health offices scattered throughout the territory that during the first wave had done an excellent job of tracking and monitoring: They are overwhelmed, they risk not being able to follow the chain of infections anymore, she warned the chancellor. . Now the swabs are carried out only for the symptomatic, with the probable effect that many people, positive but without symptoms, have infected others. But it played a decisive role the hospital crisis: the wards are under stress due to lack of staff, many ICUs have had to close due to a lack of doctors and nurses (many of them infected) and thus cut many patients out of treatment. Despite the high number of doctors and nurses compared to the population (4 and 13 for every thousand inhabitants), the problem in Germany is the number of nurses per bed: 1 every 10 patients, too few. Furthermore the German federalism proved problematic in the management of the pandemic: for months the local authorities were reluctant to implement the restrictions that the chancellor could only suggest. It was only in mid-December that the country as a whole adopted a tough lockdown. But today’s disaster has been in gestation for months: first freedom and soft lockdown did not work and now the consequences are there for all to see also because the country has begun to circulate English variant, no longer deadly but more contagious.
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Delays in closures
In some ways, the epilogue of Germany resembles what is happening in Veneto, which has passed from a model to a special observer. The Veneto, in all these weeks of restrictions has always been considered yellow zone. The Region has paid for the maintenance of its health system and the capacity of territorial tracking, so as to never end up in the orange zone. And the virus continued to circulate with so many people around chatting, going to shops, smoking while all stuck together. Only during the Christmas period did Veneto also follow the restrictions decided for the rest of Italy with the alternation of red areas on public holidays and orange. But it was too late now.
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They have also been carried out in the Region quick swabs rather than molecular on hospital staff. Rapid antigenic swabs are less accurate, expose you to a greater risk of false negatives as the doctors themselves have reported. And if a false negative operator sets foot in the hospital it is rather easy for an outbreak to develop, as indeed happened.
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Probably both Veneto and Germany should have closed earlier because there comes a time when the growth of cases can no longer be contained despite efforts. If the virus circulates too much, every system, even the most virtuous, jumps. In fact, the timing of the closures counts a lot to reduce the contagion, even if nobody knows the magic formula. Just a few more days at that stage places a heavy price to pay in terms of deaths. The calculation was done by a study from Columbia University in New York on the first wave, which demonstrated how the same intervention applied only 1-2 weeks earlier, would have been enough to avoid 61.6% of infections and 55.0% of deaths reported at the US level at the national level. A question still remains without a certain answer: how come the Veneto , the yellow zone has always suffered such a high leap of infections while the Lazio, also the yellow region, has not suffered an escalation of infections and deaths but always managed to contain the spread of the coronavirus? It is necessary to see the level of spread of the epidemic from which both Regions started, a fact that counts a lot summarizes Antonella Viola, immunologist, professor of Pathology at the University of Padua.In Veneto the virus has also entered overwhelmingly in RSA and hospitals and a crucial fact for the spread of the pandemic
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January 6, 2021 (change January 6, 2021 | 20:26)
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