Last week, opposition politician Kara-Murza was sentenced to 25 years in prison for his opposition to the policy pursued by the Kremlin. His final post is hopefulbut there is also an infinitely sad realization of the direction Russia is taking.
This realization is reflected in most of what Russia does on a daily basis, from information control, militarization and the totalitarian turn at home, to claims that Russia’s “special operation” in Ukraine is a necessary act of defense as a result of Western aggression.
Everything is turned upside down and the derailment from reality is striking.
The realization also lies in the fact that we have not seen the peak of the totalitarian turn.
The power around Putin and the military is stronger now than before 24 February, new laws are introduced to make mobilization to the front more efficient and reintroduction of the death penalty is on the table.
Large-scale kidnapping of Ukrainian children, who are then adopted away or sent to internment camps in Russia to be “Russified” hits right into one of the core of the UN Genocide Convention, Article 2(e)and has resulted in an international arrest warrant for President Putin and Russia’s Commissioner for Children’s Rights.
An ugly scratch in the paint for Putin, but so far without particular consequences.
Terrifying speed
And yet another proof, among many, that the dictator is only able to tighten the screws.
Conspiracies, paranoia and a hypersensitivity linked to regime survival and Putin’s legacy play a strong role here.
It has been there all along, but has accelerated especially since 2012.
Here were the Kremlin’s claims about The US’s attempt to overthrow the regime through “color revolutions” good momentum after the big Bolotnaya protests.
– Will take the Russians to bed
Laws on foreign agents, extremism and severe restrictions in the information sphere spread at breakneck speed.
Ukraine’s turn towards the West, and the fear of further narrowing of Russia’s influence as a result of other post-Soviet countries’ membership in the EU and Nato added further water to the mill.
EU and NATO membership put an effective stop to Russia’s ability to do as it pleased in its neighboring regions.
Russia learned from, among others, Georgia, Syria and Ukraine that the consequences of using military force were not particularly great and has actively used this instrument to strengthen its position and secure its alleged rights as a great power.
New era for European security
After 2014, and especially after 2020, the idea of Russia’s right to reunification of historical territory was reinforced with the relatively quiet and unopposed annexation of Belarus.
Poor intelligence from Ukraine, partly due to the desire to appease Putin, mixed with the Kremlin’s worldview resulted in February 24 and a new era for European security.
Bombed own city – threw car on the roof
Russia’s future is now being shaped and decided on the battlefield in Ukraine.
Poor military results make the narrowing at home the only solution, but we should not ignore the fact that this is a solution Putin and his inner circle are relatively happy with.
They get more power and the Kremlin gets to make a final break with what Putin describes as an unjust, Western-led (read: US-led) world order which is now changing in favor of Russia.
They have been talking about this world order for a long time and China mirrors most of their thinking.
And, with time, Russia also gets the opportunity to spread uncertainty and its storytelling, in the UN and in countries outside the Western sphere such as share the notion that this war is between two equal parties and must end.
Stifles democracy
Therefore, just as the Kremlin over time stifles democracy and opposition at home, the war in Ukraine has been turned into a long-term project, with the aim of wearing out Western patience and military industry.
At the same time, parts of the production are maintained at home.
At least enough to keep the war going.
We do not yet know how long this can go on and on and the consequences of a new Ukrainian spring offensive.
However, there is reason to be skeptical about cases of a divided elite and predictions about Putin’s end.
The Kremlin seems to have a good handle on most of them, and what options do they have?
At the same time, an imminent question is whether the Kremlin really has the power to completely turn its back on Europe.
Here is Stoltenberg in Kyiv
A glance at the map and the fact that many in the country still orient themselves towards the continent shows that it is difficult.
It can give hope for the future.
Insecurity
However, Europe cannot quite keep up with the changes either.
Upheavals are chaotic and just as the “fog of war” makes itself felt on the battlefield in Ukraine, it is also partly unclear to maneuver in the shifting blocks of the international system.
Cohesion in NATO and the EU has exceeded all expectations, but is also characterized by uncertainty and different countries’ interests and sometimes complicated relationships with key actors such as Russia, China and the USA.
It will possibly become more visible as the war drags on.
In addition, the impatience linked to the war in Ukraine, which for half a year has been characterized by smaller, but very bloody, movements along the front line will make itself felt.
Calls for de-escalation are getting louder in line with increased tension and high costs at all levels.
Military, political, economic, humanitarian and in sheer losses on the battlefield.
In that sense, it is worth reading Russia researcher Martin Kragh’s chronicle in SVD, where one point is that in the face of Russia’s aggressiveness, history teaches us that “detente paradoxically works best against a background of deterrence.” Deterrence is necessary.
Long-term steadfastness of principle is the key to the Kremlin’s ambitions.
Because, Russia will continue to play on the uncertainty related to where this will end.
And the battle in the information domain is intensifying in line with Russia’s constant step further away from reality.
And, then we are back to Kara-Murza and a small excerpt from his final post:
«I also
know that the day will come when the darkness over our country will dissipate.
When black will be called black and white will be called white; when at the
official level it will be recognized that two times two is still four; when a
war will be called a war, …; and when those who kindled and unleashed this war,
rather than those who tried to stop it, will be recognized as criminals.»
We are far from this yet. In the meantime, discussions about the relationship with Russia and long-term principled stability in the unity with Ukraine are becoming important.
Uncertainty is the greatest enemy of our time and the darling of exploitation.
Then it is necessary to equip yourself accordingly.
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2023-04-24 04:11:30
#Ukraine #war #Russias #fate #decided
