The second round of municipal elections in 2020 gave hope to Republicans and Socialists, who were said to be moribund. Weakened nationally, the two historic parties remain deeply rooted in local life.
The PS and LR are still moving. The results of the second round of the municipal elections, Sunday June 28, proved that the Socialist Party and the Republicans are not dead. They are even very much alive. Does this mean that these two historic parties in French political life are part of a new dynamic? “No, hastens to relativize Olivier Rouquan, political scientist and researcher at the Center for Studies and Research in Administrative and Political Sciences (Cersa). With a record of abstention exceeding 60%, we cannot either talk about bursting. The voters who have come are more activists and sympathizers. They do not reflect the whole of the French electorate. But the PS and LR have despite everything proved their robustness and their strong anchoring in the local network . The other EELV parties, the RN or LFI cannot say the same. ”
To read: Municipal 2020: an unprecedented abstention, chronicle of an announced disillusion
Certainly, the blue wave that had swept over France in 2014 turned green in 2020. And the record of the right remains mixed because of the heavy losses suffered in Bordeaux, Marseille against environmentalists, and that of Perpignan kidnapped by the RN . Nevertheless, the right has won “more than half of the cities” of medium size, welcome the leaders of the party. “The tree must not hide the forest. The right is the majority, we will probably be around 60 to 65% of cities with more than 9,000 inhabitants, it is considerable”, assured Sunday evening on France 2 the mayor of Meaux Jean-François Copé, himself largely reelected (76.35%).
“Auspicious”
The Republicans party has indeed consolidated its presence in Saint-Étienne, Reims, Caen, Mulhouse, Auxerre, Limoges, Orléans, Biarritz, Lorient, Montélimar, Auxerre, Colmar, or even Belfort. “We are back to victory after the failure of the presidential, legislative, European,” assured his side the President of the Republicans Christian Jacob, who expected a lot from this election to revive the dynamics of the party.
To read: Municipal 2020: after the green wave, the return of the left to the fore?
Moreover, the great figures of the Republicans are still in place in their respective stronghold: François Baroin in Troyes, Jean-François Copé in Meaux, Christian Estrosi in Nice, Natacha Bouchart in Calais. In Paris, Rachida Dati is unsurprisingly second (between 31.7 and 32.7% of the vote) behind Anne Hidalgo (between 49.3 and 50.2%). But in this complicated battle, the former Sarkozy minister was able to give hope to his camp: “We have straightened the right in Paris”, she assured.
The right offers communist strongholds
The right also recorded good catches in Toulouse, Lorient, Metz, Arles, Villeneuve-sur-Lot and Lisieux. The Republicans even paid themselves the luxury of overthrowing Communist strongholds in Gardanne (Bouches-du-Rhône) and Aubervilliers, Villeneuve-Saint-Georges and Champigny-sur-Marne in the Paris suburbs. For the right, these less publicized victories are crucial. “It bodes well for the senatorial elections, but also departmental and regional elections to come,” predicted Christian Estrosi.
“These results actually suggest that the right will be able to keep a large battalion in the Senate (during the senatorial elections in September, Editor’s note), approves Olivier Rouquan. The fact remains that the position of the right is worrying, because it struggles to seduce in the big cities. If the Republicans conquered more cities than the other parties during these municipal, their number of voters is, him, in decline “.
The PS “always the first party of the left”
In the ranks of the PS too, we rejoice. It must be said that the Socialists retained a majority of their positions on Sunday, particularly in Paris, Nantes, Rennes, Lille, Villeurbanne, Dijon and Le Mans. Some great catches to report on the side of Nancy, Montpellier, Périgueux, Bourges, Saint-Denis or even Saint-Ouen. And how to evoke the green wave without mentioning the invaluable support of the Socialists in Lyon, Strasbourg, Bordeaux and Marseille? These large cities all passed Sunday evening in the hands of the Greens, thanks to the agreements concluded between EELV, the PS and the Communist Party.
And in the 11 cities of more than 200,000 inhabitants, there are 9 mayors of the left and ecology elected yesterday (6 PS and 3 EELV), including the 3 largest cities in France. https://t.co/C6e0cwmRq6
– Corinne Narassiguin (@CorinneNara) June 29, 2020
An alliance which revives the hopes of the left which is now dreamed of in “a social-ecological block”, according to the expression of the boss of the PS, Olivier Faure. “A huge momentum is rising across France,” he said. “All the left and the ecologists are gaining formidable victories. This is what is happening, we have in this country something which is being born, a social-ecological bloc which must now be consolidated”.
Perked up, the PS even contemplates the presidential election aloud. The green wave “should not make us forget the good socialist behavior, always first party on the left, estimates for his part Jean-Christophe Cambadélis. What we did with this election, it is the line built for two years with Olivier Faure , whose strategy is the right one. This must be the first step in rebuilding a left capable of winning [la présidentielle] in 2022. ”
The leaving bonus
The many victories garnered by the PS and the LRs are “in a context of health crisis during which the old parties have had something reassuring, continues Olivier Rouquan. Let us also remember that the mayors have benefited for decades from the bonus to leavers “. Indeed, of the 30,000 mayors elected in the first round, two-thirds were outgoing mayors. Under these conditions, not easy for the new parties to dethrone these ultra-favorites to their own succession.
But on the left as on the right, it nevertheless seems necessary to tame the ardor. “The two historic parties still remain in a defensive position at the national level,” said Olivier Rouquan. “If the PS has been able to seduce in the big cities by uniting with the Greens, abstention remains the biggest winner of this election. Only one thing is clear: the disinterest of the French for politics is deep and installed”.
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