The PP achieves wide triumphs in the autonomies where it has governed, Sumar does not exist in rural Spain and Vox disappears from Castilla y León
He People’s Party will be the force that wins the most seats in 33 of the 52 constituencies in contention in the general elections of the next July 23th. He PSOE It will only be imposed in the distribution in four provinces. together and the PNV They will do it in one each. And 13 territories will attend a tie between two or more parties. This is clear from the tracking data of Sigma Two for THE WORLDwhich in its latest update -published yesterday and with field work carried out until Saturday morning- offers the most probable result that the PP obtains 146 deputies, compared to 106 from the PSOE, 35 from Vox31 summer9 of Junts, 8 of ERC6 from the PNV, 5 from eh Bildu2 from CUP1 of teruel exists and 1 of Canarian Coalition. Although they have options, they would not even enter soria alreadyis UPN nor the Galician nationalists of the BNG.
ANDALUSIA (61). The possible absolute majority of the right is built from Andalusia. The socialist granary is no longer one and the Popular Party would get 24 of the 61 seats in dispute in the autonomous community. It would be imposed on the PSOE in Almeria (3-2, with 1 from Vox), Córdoba (same cast) and Granada (3-2-1 and another from Sumar). Both forces would get equal representation in Cadiz (3-3, with 2 from Vox and 1 from Sumar), Huelva (2-2 and 1 from Vox), Jaen (same cast) and Málaga (4-4, with 2 from Vox and 1 from Sumar). The PSOE would manage to stay above Sevilla and would win 5-4 in the constituency, in which Vox would win two seats and Sumar, another. In total, the PSOE would get 22 seats, but the battle is settled in third place. While Vox gets 11 deputies, Sumar only gets 4.
The right takes a conclusive result from Andalusia: 35-26. Upward compared to the regional ones of 2022, in which its extrapolated results would have meant a 34-27. The right had never achieved such a result in this community. All in all, the PP hopes to grow to around 30 Andalusian deputies and take a bite out of Vox that will trigger its final result.
CATALUÑA (48). Better news obtains the PSOE in Catalonia thanks to the setback, mainly, of ERC. The Socialists will be the force with the most votes in the community and will achieve 13 of the 48 deputies that it distributes. 9 for Barcelona -same result as in April 2019-, 2 per Tarragonawhere they will be first force, and 1 both in Gerona like in Lleida. Junts is consolidated as the second force with 9 seats (5 in Barcelona, 2 in Girona, 1 in Lérida and Tarragona). ERC sinks from 13 to 8 (5 in Barcelona, 1 in Gerona, Lérida and Tarragona). They would tie with the PP, which would also obtain 8, five of them for Barcelona -the best result since 2011- and one in the rest of the provinces. Sumar resists with six deputies (5 in Barcelona and 1 in Tarragona), Vox retains its 2 deputies for Barcelona, and the CUP achieves 1 in the capital and another in Girona.
MADRID (37). It continues to be one of the fishing grounds of the Popular Party. those of feijóo they would get, according to Sigma Two, 16 of the 37 seats. The PSOE would get 10, for 6 from Vox and 5 from Sumar, which would allow them to enter the Congress to the leader of We can, Ione Herb. The distribution of the blocks would be the same as the one that arose from extrapolating the result of 28-M (22-15), but the pull of Santiago Abascal compared to Dew Monastery converts a 19-3 of the PP against Vox in the expected 16-6.
HOW. VALENCIA (33). It has been one of the leading territories in the pre-campaign for the agreement to govern in a coalition signed between PP and Vox. And it does not seem to have harmed either of the two formations. They got an absolute majority 28-M and they will also achieve it in the community on 23-J, according to the data from the breakdown by provinces. 18 to 15. A result similar to that of November 2019, although now the region has one more deputy per population. The PP wins with 13 seats (6 Valencia5 Alicante2 Castellon), ahead of the PSOE with 10 (5, 4 and 1 respectively), Sumar with 5 (3, 1 and 1) and Vox, also with 5 (2, 2 and 1).
CASTILE AND LEON (31). The Sigma Dos data forecasts one of the most surprising results of election night for Castile and Leon, where a perfect bipartisanship would be reborn in which only the Popular Party and the PSOE would share seats. The Popular Party would get 20, compared to 11 for the PSOE. None Vox or Add. Those of Núñez Feijóo prevail in Valladolid (3-2), Salamanca (3-1), Palencia (2-1), Segovia (2-1) y Zamora (2-1). tie in León (2-2) and in Soria (1-1), with Soria Already in the fight for his first seat.
Rally of Alberto Núñez Feijóo in the bullring of Pontevedra, this Sunday. David Mudarra
GALICIA (23). The land of Alberto Núñez Feijóo and Yolanda Diaz it will give more joy to the first than to the second on the electoral night of July 23. The Popular Party would achieve a solid absolute majority in the region, driven by who has already achieved four as president of this autonomous community. The PP would win 14 of the 23 Galician seats (4 in La Coruna y Pontevedrawhere yesterday there was a mass bathand 3 in Lugo y orense). The PSOE would be left with 7 (3 in La Coruña, 2 in Pontevedra, 1 in Lugo and Orense) and Sumar would win the game over the BNG and get 1 deputy for La Coruña and Pontevedra. That dispute, however, lives on. Not so for Vox, which has not been able to grow in Galicia due to the strength of the PP.
CASTILE-LA MANCHA (21). One of the communities that most clearly exemplifies the dual vote in the regional ballot boxes. Emiliano Garcia-Page he convinced many right-wing voters on 28-M. With the results of the last regional elections, the PSOE would have obtained 12 seats, the PP 8 and Vox, only 1. Now, the projection of Sigma Dos for election night establishes that the PP will win the elections in Castilla-La Mancha with 11 deputies (3 in Toledo y Real city2 in Albacete y Cuenca1 in Guadalajara), by 7 from the PSOE (2, 2, 1, 1 and 1, respectively) and 3 from Vox (it would enter Albacete, Guadalara and Toledo). Sumar would not achieve any deputy, and would stay at zero in the two Castillas.
BASQUE COUNTRY (18). The PNV endures the challenge of EH Bildu and would win the elections on 23-J with 6 of the 18 Basque seats. The jeltzales would win in Vizcaya (3) and achieve 2 in Guipúzcoa and 1 in alava. EH Bildu achieved 4 Basque deputies (1, 2 and 1), the same as the PSOE (2, 1 and 1). The Popular Party gets 2 deputies (for Vizcaya and Álava), the same as Sumar (in Vizcaya and Guipúzcoa).
Yolanda Díaz rally in Seville, this Sunday. Raul Caro
CANARY ISLANDS (15). The Popular Party makes the most of the partial absence of competitors in its spectrum and would also win the 23-J elections in the Canary Islands. In Santa Cruz of Tenerifesin citizens nor Vox, which for the moment is not appearing after not having been able to formalize its list waiting for what the court decides. constitutional Courtthe PP obtains 3 seats, for 2 for the PSOE and 1 for both the Canary Islands Coalition and Sumar, which would return to Congress alberto rodriguezparty representative Drago in Yolanda Díaz’s coalition. In The Gran Canarian palmsthe PP scores a clear victory with 4 deputies, 2 from the PSOE, 1 from Vox and 1 from Sumar.
ARAGON (13). Another community in which, if there is no surprise, a copy of the results of last May 28 will be practically repeated, despite the fact that the negotiations between PP and Vox are still underway to unlock the possible investiture of Jorge Azcon. The PP would achieve 3 seats per Zaragoza2 for Huesca and 1 for Teruel. The PSOE, for its part, 2 for Zaragoza and 1 in the rest of the constituencies. Vox and Sumar would win 1 seat for Zaragoza. And Teruel Existe would revalidate his in his province.
MURCIA (10). The tension between PP and Vox does not seem to have a particular influence on the expected result for the Region of Murcia by Sigma Two. The block on the right would repeat the 7-3 that has already been repeated on other occasions in the community, the same that would have resulted from extrapolating the results of 28-M. Although it would not reach the 8-2 that it did Mariano Rajoy 12 years ago. The PP would thus achieve 5 seats in Murcia, by 2 from PSOE and Vox and 1 from Sumar.
Santiago Abascal addresses the media before the Vox rally in Cáceres. Vincent M. Roso
EXTREMADURA (9). One of the most controversial territories in recent weeks due to the actions of Maria Guardiola, it would also be a victory for the right on 23-J. Although PP and PSOE tie 2 deputies in caceres y badajoz, Vox would get the fifth in dispute in Badajoz, above Sumar. Santiago Abascal has concentrated a good part of his presence in electoral campaign in this community.
BALEARES (8). On the islands, the result of just over a month ago and the recent investiture of Marga Prohenswho will govern alone, drive the right to a 5-3 that, as in other constituencies, has not occurred since 2011. The PP would achieve 4 of the 8 Balearic deputies, by 2 from the PSOE, 1 from Vox and 1 from Sumar , who is here in coalition with the econationalists of Month.
ASTURIAS (7). Like in Castilla la Manchadespite the fact that the socialist Adrian Barbon won the elections, the PP would be the force with the most votes and would achieve 3 deputies for Asturias, compared to 2 for the PSOE, 1 for Vox and 1 for Sumar. The popular benefit from the absence of Forumwhich is not presented to the generals.
CANTABRIA (5). Something similar happens in Cantabriawhere the PRC of the former president Miguel Angel Revilla, that his deputy could have kept if he had repeated the results of 28-M. By not showing up, the cast is left with 3 deputies for the PP, 1 for the PSOE and the last one in dispute would remain with Vox, which prevails over Sumar.
NAVARRA (5). It is one of the few circumscriptions in which the PSOE wins, which would achieve 2 representatives. EH Bildu, the PP and Sumar would get 1 each. UPN, for the moment, would not get a deputy in the projections of Sigma Dos after deciding not to run together with the PP.
LA RIOJA (4). The popular ones would repeat their recent absolute majority, and they would clearly prevail with 3 seats, to 1 for the PSOE. Neither Vox nor Sumar would enter.
CEUTA AND MELILLA (2). The PP, according to Sigma Dos, will win the seat of the two autonomous cities.
Reference population and geographic scope: People aged 18 and over residing in Spain with the right to vote.
Information gathering technique: Through the Two Sigma Panel by Trust Survey. Mixed telephone (CATI) / online (CAWI) methodology.
sample sizes: 4,506 interviews.
Selection of sampling units: In the telephone interview through random selection of household and application of sex and age quotas in the selection of the last unit. In the case of the panel, proportional allocation by sex and age group has been applied. The distribution of the sample has been proportional by autonomous community in both samples.
Error range: The absolute sampling error can be delimited by ±1.5% for a confidence level of 95.5%, and in the assumption of variables with two equally distributed categories.
Field Work Date: from July 3 to 8, 2023
Realization: Produced by SIGMA DOS SL, Calle Velázquez 50, Madrid, for Unidad Editorial.
Technical direction: Jose Luis Rojo Gil.
According to the criteria of The Trust Project
Know more
#23J #survey #province #province #historic #result #Andalusia #total #bipartisanship #Castilla #León #PSC #wins #Catalonia
