The market is waiting for the release of U.S. job market data this week. The major indexes opened lower | Anue Juheng-U.S. Stock Radar

A series of U.S. economic data are about to be released this week. The market’s argument for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) early next year will be tested by labor market data. Investors are cautious and major U.S. stock indexes opened lower on Monday (4th).

before deadline,Dow Jones Industrial Averagefell nearly 90 points or nearly 0.2%,Nasdaq Composite Indexfell nearly 140 points or nearly 1%,S&P 500 Indexfell nearly 0.6%,Philadelphia SemiconductorThe index fell nearly 1.5%.

A series of U.S. economic reports this week will shed light on the state of the U.S. job market and whether markets are prematurely expecting weaker economic conditions to open the door to a rate cut by the Federal Reserve.

Bets on a soft landing pushed the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield 60 basis points lower in November from a 16-year high of 5% last month and pushed a gauge of the security into positive territory for the year.in additionS&P 500 IndexIt rose about 9%, one of the largest November gains in a century.

“We’ve had a great rally and now it’s just an unwind,” said Tony Dwyer, chief market strategist at Canaccord Genuity. He believes the threat of a recession could curb further gains in stocks and make inflation a thing of the past. He also pointed out that inflation is not the problem, earnings growth and economic activity are.

Although Fed Chairman Jerome Powell reiterated that it is too early to speculate on easing policy, the market is still betting that the Fed will cut interest rates next year. The exchange market currently sees a more than 50% chance of a rate cut in March next year and is fully pricing in a May rate cut.

But these bets will be tested tomorrow, when the latest U.S. job openings (JOLTS) data for October will be released, followed by the ADP national employment report on Wednesday (6th) and the non-farm payrolls report on Friday (8th). Employment report.

Ben Gutteridge, multi-asset portfolio manager at Invesco, said that in addition to the risk of inflation caused by wage growth, the market may also be affected by commodities.

He noted that the risk to U.S. trade is that energy markets will recover strongly. Hopefully there won’t be a repeat of 2022, with a reflationary surge in commodity markets, perhaps in oil markets, and then a rate hike could come back to the table.

As of 22:00 Taipei time on Monday (4th):

Focus stocks:

VinFast(VFS-US) fell 1.98% in early trading to $7.68 per share

VinFast, an electric vehicle manufacturer with the “Vietnamese version of Tesla”, said on Monday (4th) that it had signed an investment letter of intent with the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC), which is run by the U.S. government, to consider the company’s application for a 5-year investment in expansion. billion dollar loan. VinFast said in a statement that the loan will be used to support VinFast in establishing lithium-ion battery production facilities in Vietnam, which is subject to a comprehensive review and approval process by the DFC.

Spotify(SPOT-US) rose 11.08% to $200.72 per share in early trading

Music streaming service Spotify Technology SA announced it would cut about 17% of its workforce, marking at least its third layoff this year. Its shares rose in pre-market trading after the news. The company said in a statement that affected employees will be notified on Monday and will meet with the human resources department before the end of Tuesday (5th). The layoffs will affect about 1,500 people.

Huida (NVDA-US) fell 2.21% in early trading to $457.32 per share

Huida’s officers and directors sold or filed documents last month indicating they intended to sell about 370,000 shares worth about $180 million, according to information compiled by the Washington Service. If all shares were sold, it would be the largest monthly sell-off in dollar terms in at least six years. The move shows that bosses of the S&P 500’s best-performing companies are cashing out at a time when corporate insiders are increasingly betting on their own companies’ shares.

Today’s key economic data:

• The revised monthly growth rate of durable goods orders in the United States in October was -5.4%, expected -5.4%, and the previous value -5.4%
• The monthly growth rate of U.S. factory orders in October was -3.6%, expected -2.6%, and the previous value was 2.3%

Wall Street analysis:

Morgan Stanley analyst Michael Wilson said that as bond yields fluctuate, U.S. stocks will be volatile at the end of the year after rising in November.althoughS&P 500 IndexIt has risen nearly 20%, but Wilson is overall bearish on U.S. stocks this year. “Both interest rates and stocks are likely to be volatile in the short term” in December, he said in a note, followed by more constructive seasonal trends and the so-called “January effect” to support stocks next month.

JPMorgan Chase said that almost all economists and markets now believe that the U.S. economy will now achieve a soft landing with no room for error, so it may be time to adopt a contrarian strategy. The bank’s strategists, led by Mislav Matejkasee, believe profit forecasts for next year will be lower and bond yields are likely to peak.