The Lancet strikes in Ukraine show how much cheaper and more effectively Russia can fight, writes The National Interest. However, even the Houthis can easily undermine American military power. According to the publication, it is time to reconsider US spending.
In business there is a term “commodification,” reminds the author of the article, a macroeconomist Philip Pilkington. This is when a former luxury item is turned into an everyday product and is sold and bought at bargain prices. When smartphones first came onto the market, they were an unaffordable luxury item. Today, luxury smartphones are still expensive, but commercial models are available for as little as $100.
The conflict in Ukraine has made it abundantly clear that modern warfare is undergoing rapid commodification. The reason is partly ironic: technologies that were originally developed specifically for military purposes (for example, GPS and advanced electronic optics) have moved into the consumer segment and become more affordable.
Commercial versions of these technologies are now being used to create new, highly effective and low-cost weapons systems.
The most prominent example of such technology being commoditized during the Ukrainian conflict was the Russian Lancet drones from ZALA. They were widely used to destroy tanks and other equipment of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. Footage of Lancets knocking out modern tanks like the German Leopard II has become commonplace.
Let’s look at relative costs. One Lancet costs about $35,000. Apparently, it is also simple and quick to assemble: ZALA Aero Group has promised to increase production “several times” this year.
On the other hand, the Leopard 2 tank costs about $11 million. In addition, its production is much slower: only about fifty cars are produced annually.
Then outright absurdity begins. At net cost, Russia can produce 314 Lancets for every German Leopard. The discrepancy becomes even more striking if we take into account the difference in prices in the two countries, adjusting them to purchasing power parity (PPP), as is customary in accurate economic comparisons.
It turns out that for every German Leopard, Russia can release 683 Lancets. This begs the obvious question: will Leopard 2 compare in its combat capabilities to almost seven hundred Lancets? Hardly.
The commodification of the battlefield that we see in Ukraine calls into question Western military strategy, which largely focuses on producing high-quality, expensive equipment in hopes of overwhelming technologically inferior enemy forces.
And this applies not only to harsh fighting of attrition, such as we see in Ukraine.
The rapid commodification of the modern battlefield has been on full display in recent days, as Yemen’s Houthi rebels have essentially managed to impose a blockade on the Red Sea—even without a navy.
The key moment in the Red Sea blockade was the successful destruction of a merchant ship by an Iranian anti-ship missile. Information about the specific model of the missile is scant, but there is no doubt that it was significantly cheaper than the air defense missiles in service with Western warships.
Reports have already highlighted that the US Navy is spending two million dollars apiece on missiles to shoot down $2,000 Houthi drones.
The nature of the new weapons also raises deeper questions. When the blockade first began, there were calls for the US Navy and its allies to bomb the Houthis to force their surrender.
But what exactly were they going to bomb? These new missiles and drones can be freely transferred throughout the territory controlled by the Houthis, and launched completely remotely. Even when the US Navy identifies a target, it may turn out to be a cheap launcher or, at best, an empty truck.
Then there are questions for the US military-industrial complex itself. Is it fit for purpose and up to the challenge? Is its high-tech and expensive model suitable for the modern battlefield? Are its long, complex supply chains even necessary?
After all, the bulk of the technology for the production of new “commodified” weapons is available on the commercial market.
For example, a motor similar to the one used in Iran’s 358 missiles can be purchased on AliExpress or homemade drone sites for just a few hundred dollars.
2024-01-05 12:29:00
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