We are in 2026, in Beijing. Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, has just ordered his army to invade Taiwan. According to long-established plans, the People’s Republic Air Force must first destroy the rebel island’s planes and airfields.
Then there will be an amphibious landing of several hundred thousand men – as on the beaches of Normandy in 1944. In Washington, the head of the White House convenes a council of war. How should he respond?
This is the scenario of a wargame, a conflict simulation, entitled “The first battle of the next war”, in which senior American military and political officials took part a few months ago. It was organized over several days by the CSIS (Center for Strategic and International Studies), a prestigious think tank, in Washington. Published in January, the results made headlines across the Atlantic. As if this war game would inevitably become reality.
Why does such a prospect worry Americans so much? Why is the possible invasion of Taiwan, an island no larger than a French region and forty times less populated than China, its powerful neighbor, the worst nightmare of the leaders of the United States? There are at least five reasons.
1. A strategic location
An ally of Washington since the 1950s, Taiwan occupies a key geographical position. Located less than 200 kilometers from the coast of Ch
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