The Importance of Anti-Aircraft Defenses Highlighted in Recent Iranian Missile Attack: Experts Urge Europe to Invest in Additional Patriots

• Rolf Schuttenhelm

  domestic editor

A massive Iranian missile attack with minimal ultimate damage versus massive destruction of power plants, dams and apartment complexes. The difference between Israel and Ukraine shows the importance or lack of a comprehensive network of modern anti-aircraft defenses.

Anti-aircraft defense is a top priority, experts tell NOS. And yet, even with recent budget increases, it remains a neglected child. This week it was announced that the Netherlands wants additional investment in air defense, but only from 2028 – and with an amount that is not enough to increase capacity.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Zelensky is asking allies for additional Patriot anti-aircraft systems. These must, among other things, protect the capital of Kharkiv near the Russian border against heavy Russian bombing. Germany answered the call on Saturday one extra Patriot battery to deliver. But to effectively defend Ukraine, 25 are needed.

Can other European countries step in and maintain their own air defenses at the same time? Professor of war studies Frans Osinga from Leiden University thinks so. “It is important, not only for humanitarian, but also for strategic reasons, that Europe provides additional Patriots to Ukraine as soon as possible.”

“Then we have time to place orders ourselves. The manufacturer Raytheon has said that there is enough production space.” The company could now produce one battery per month, but that capacity is not fully utilized due to a lack of orders.

The Patriot is proving to have great defense value in Ukraine, says defense expert Dick Zadee of the Clingendael Institute. “The Patriot appears to be very successful and, perhaps against previous expectations, even capable of intercepting Kinzhal’s hypersonic missiles.” Russia said that these super-fast missiles could not be intercepted.

But the problem for Ukraine is that it is a large country, with an enemy that does not distinguish between military targets and civilian targets. So in addition to airfields and trenches, all cities and infrastructure must be protected as well. Last week, a large power station near Kyiv was destroyed by Russian bombing. According to some analysts, this indicates a lack of anti-aircraft weapons.

“Ukraine was attacked every day for two years,” Osinga said. “In March alone, the country had to take in 4,000 projectiles. They may have run out of anti-aircraft weapons supplies.”

But it could also be due to the circuit of the protective batteries. An analysis of the highly tortuous flight path of Russian drones and cruise missiles appears to indicate that they have found loopholes and are moving around the defense installations.

The big difference is with Israel. Saturday’s massive attack of hundreds of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles by Iran destroyed almost every projectile in the air. This blanket protection is also the doctrine that Europe had during the Cold War, says Osinga – but it has been largely cut back.

However, Germany recently placed an order for additional Patriot batteries and Poland also made a large purchase: last year the country ordered at least 48 surgeons. Sweden, the youngest NATO member, recently decided to better protect its airspace with the surface-to-air missile.

Even two years after the start of the war in Ukraine and the increase in the defense budget, the Netherlands has not decided to expand the Patriot air defense. The Netherlands has one squadron, which consists of three independent fire units (batteries). Each has a radar and multiple launchers. Last year the Netherlands delivered two surgeons to Ukraine, from the reserve.

Patriots are needed in the event of a major military conflict to close all European airspace in the east. They are also needed to protect important facilities in the hinterland, such as cities and ports, Zandee says. The existing capacity is inadequate for both functions. “Given the long-term air threat from weapons and cruise missiles, strengthening air defenses with additional Patriot fire units makes sense.”

Additional Patriots would also be a relatively cost-effective defense reinforcement, says Michelle Haas, a researcher in European defense policy at Ghent University. “The manufacturer has a place and the costs are also manageable compared to large modernization projects. Think 300 million for each launcher – including weapons and radar. So yes, European countries should certainly send such orders.”

“I think we are late,” Osinga concludes. “Already in the summer of 2022, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg made a call to strengthen our defense. It seems that we have started to take this seriously in the last six months, but without a major expansion on air defenses.”