I think not everyone has read the report of the International Energy Agency today, so I will summarize what is important:
The oil shortage will be stable until the end of the year for sure, and if OPEC+ does not reverse its decision to reduce production, it will remain at the beginning of 2024.
What am I thinking here?:
It will be one hundred per barrel. This can be read between the lines, although it is not specifically named. It will be this year. And, probably, it is very likely that they will not cancel the reduction in the next one and will push it to 110-120 per barrel. Shitty forecast. It’s no longer about 60 hryvnia per liter of fuel at gas stations in Ukraine. I’m afraid that in the spring it could be 70 or 80 in such situations (if we don’t change anything in our taxes).
And here’s why I think so. The Saudis are somehow too warm towards Russia. The fact is that the decision to reduce production resulted in an additional 1.8 yards of evergreen rashka, even despite the overall reduction in their exports.
This whole Jeddah (conference about peace in Ukraine), in my subjective opinion, is just a distraction.
The Saudis are playing a great geopolitical game
My conclusion, of course, is global and debatable, I do not pretend to be the ultimate truth, but:
The Saudis are playing their big game, Biden has not and will not curb them. And the root of their game is certainly not Ukraine. The intersection of their interests at the Iran-Israel-China crossroads. This is where the answer lies to where oil will go in its rally. And the fact that now their vector coincides with the Russian one, it simply coincides. But this, alas, does not make it any easier for us.
Conclusion for the consumer:
Fuel prices will continue to rise until the end of the year. Small pauses are possible, sharp rallies and small rebounds are possible. But I would also recommend that the Government think about a floating rate of VAT and excise tax on fuel, so as not to lead the situation to hysterics and then not make sudden moves to search for a black cat in a black room.
PS It happens that suddenly something changes dramatically. And now, if anything happens, I will inform the IEA before, but for now, get ready.
Important New gasoline prices. How much will fuel prices rise in Ukraine due to global oil shortage?
2023-09-19 14:17:10
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