The mild weather in Europe is largely determined by the Gulf Stream. If it dries up, temperatures could drop drastically.
Kassel – Without the Gulf Stream, our natural “central heating”, the continent of Europe would be different. Europeans have this sea current in the Atlantic to thank for the rather mild winter weather. The Gulf Stream provides heat to large parts of Europe by transporting vast amounts of thermal energy from the South Atlantic to the North Atlantic. The powerful current is therefore also the reason why the North Sea off Germany is ice-free. And even the ports in the far north, such as in Norway, are partly ice-free all year round – which is actually not typical for our region.
The Gulf Stream has a major impact on Europe’s weather – it is threatening to dry up due to climate change
Without these warm water masses, which are transported from the subtropics all the way up to the Arctic, we would probably have to deal with icy winters in Germany similar to those in Canada – at least in northern Germany, which is at a similar latitude as Hudson Bay in Canada . through the climate change however, there is a risk of a change in the current.
It could weaken, change its course so that it doesn’t even make it north. Or – and that would have particularly serious consequences – even dry up completely. Could the North Sea soon be under a layer of ice for months?
If the Gulf Stream dried up, the North Sea would be under ice for months
Strictly speaking, we in Europe benefit from an offshoot of the Gulf Stream, the North Atlantic Current. Coming from Florida, it moves across the Atlantic to the Norwegian coast. In this way, the water masses cool down and also become more saline due to evaporation. As a result, they sink to the depths and flow back towards the south. All currents together form a gigantic cycle that ensures a constant exchange of seawater and keeps our climate stable.
Scientists have feared for some time that this circulation could weaken as a result of global warming. In fact, measurements indicate that the Gulf Stream is weakening. Not as weak as it is now in over a thousand years, like one Study with the participation of scientists from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research.
However, changes could mean that it is getting colder here in Europe and thus also in Germany – at least in winter. The further effects, if it should actually come to that, would not only be felt in Europe. If the ocean current weakens, it would have consequences for the entire planet, like this German Climate Consortium on his website explained.
The weakening of the Gulf Stream is mainly due to the fact that the ice sheet that envelops Greenland (“Greenland Ice Sheet”) is melting due to global warming. The fresh water bound in it flows into the sea and reduces the salt content of the sea water. It is altogether no longer heavy enough to sink all the way down and flow back south. This leads to a kind of “traffic jam” and the flow is slowed down.
Is Europe threatened with an ice age because the Gulf Stream is drying up? Climate expert Latif classifies the situation
However, according to the German Climate Consortium (DKK), a new ice age is not to be expected. Such scenarios are completely out of place. But other consequences are more conceivable, as Prof. Dr. Mojib Latif from the GEOMAR Helmholtz Center for Ocean Research in Kiel explained in a video on the DKK website. According to the renowned climate researcher, the decisive factor is “how humanity will behave”.
“If everything continues as before, i.e. the increase in greenhouse gases continues, then we have to expect that the average of all models will weaken the circulation by 30 percent by the end of the century,” explained Latif. However, the expert also added that there is a fairly wide spread among the future models: “There are some models that simulate a much stronger weakening, other models hardly any weakening.”
If the Gulf Stream circulation weakens significantly, this will have an impact on the climate in Germany. “It tends to get a little cooler here,” climate expert Latif played through this case. This could be more snow in Germany have as a consequence. However, there was no talk of a new ice age. On the other hand, Latif also expects changed precipitation patterns, for example the Indian monsoon could be affected. Extreme weather events could increase.
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