If, as it seems to be willing to do, the board of Generali should decide to proceed with the presentation of its own list that also includes the CEO Philippe Donnet, without therefore listening to the voices of Caltagirone and Del Vecchio, it is plausible to imagine that life of Leo in the coming months will be quite turbulent. All the more so because at that point the comparison will move to another terrain: convincing the market to support one rather than the other list. Because it is clear that entrepreneurs will respond to the choice of the board by developing their own list of candidates.
And at that point the investors will be asked to decide whether to support Mediobanca and the board or Del Vecchio and Caltagirone. Crucial, obviously, will be the managers who will be selected (in this regard, several names have circulated, from the former to Sergio Balbinot, to the former MPS now in Axa Marco Morelli) but also the “story” that will be told.
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The board has several elements to spend on its side: the fact that Donnet in recent years has always achieved the objectives of the plan, that it is working on a new strategy, that it knows the company well and finally that it has guaranteed a total shareholder return 103% from 23 November 2016 to date (Zurich has insured 99%, Allianz 62% and Axa 36%).
A track record of a certain weight, especially in light of the difficulties encountered in the pandemic context. Which not even the two entrepreneurs disown, far from it. They acknowledge that the manager has worked to make Generali more solid and profitable. But now they want something more. They want a qualitative leap that can be reflected on the prices. On the other hand, including Benetton, private shareholders invested a total of 6.2 billion euros on the Mediobanca-Generali axis. It is understandable that they want to see all that money pay off. And in this regard, Del Vecchio has as his calling card the construction of an eyewear colossus of the caliber of EssiLux, and Caltagirone of an empire that ranges from real estate to publishing. Two “stories” well known on the market.
A market that therefore risks being the tip of the balance of contention. In the last meetings, with more than 50% of the share capital present, the weight of Italian and foreign institutional investors was just under 24%. If this slice is won, even if only in part, it would give a guarantee of victory in the assembly. Not surprisingly, at the last electoral “round” the Mediobanca list had collected 60% of the preferences, thus also receiving the favor of some of the institutional (Assogestioni 38.9%). At the moment the potential list led by Caltagirone-Del Vecchio already has an advantage but winning over the big investors will be one of the priorities of the two “consortiums”. Also to prevent consent from shifting to Assogestioni. This provided that in extremis a shared solution is not found. In this regard, diplomacy would still be at work.
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