Different countries with different phases of their particular pandemic. Distant regions of the world that still have few infected, such as South America, perhaps with variations of the SARS-CoV-2. Other regions in full growth phase still surpassing records of deceased, such as the United States. China, where the pandemic outbreak began, does not report deaths now, but gives isolated signs of outbreaks. We are facing a pandemic of pandemics from which the humanity will come out together or it won’t come out.
Different regions and trends
For the WHO we are facing different trends in different regions of the world. Within regions, such as Europe there are countries that are in different phases. For example, in Netherlands or Sweden they live a relatively normal life, while in Spain we have a “hard” confinement. Within each country there are different situations of evolution of the pandemic. From a controlled situation in Andalusia, almost from the beginning, to the hard blow they continue to have Madrid, Barcelona or La Rioja.
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Therefore, we have different evolutions or phases of the pandemic of simultaneously in different regions, countries and provinces, which supposes a pandemic pandemic. In this context, even if a country initiates a de-escalation of confinement, such as the one requested by Parliament from the Government of Spain, the environment must continue to be one of movement limitation as long as we have no guarantees.
Guarantees to unconfine Spain
WHO DG Tedros Adhanom insists that we must find each case, isolate it, test it and take care of assistance sanitary. It is about establishing the traceability and quarantine of each contact. It is not enough to wait the passage of the epidemiological time of a country, you must have the information that the tests provide correctly. For that we need to be given the maximum probability of correctly classifying a sick individual (sensitivity), that is, that of a positive result.
It is necessary to understand that our phase of the pandemic is different and that our circumstances too
Educate people
It is key that society knows why these containment measures are being implemented. It will be hard to see other countries that relax their confinement while in Spain it persists. It is necessary to understand that our phase of the pandemic is different and that our circumstances too. It is very important to avoid demagogic approaches to the need to go out and everyone to the street. Because we could suffer outbreaks: we are still not prepared.
We need resources: test, masks and plans
We must be aware that the absence of means that still persists (diagnostic tests and masks) are the main reason that we cannot apply a lack of precision in the times when we could do it. Or put another way, we could be entering a more advanced phase, according to some reports, at the end of May.
For that, in the next two weeks, the infected curve it should decrease at a faster rate, and we should have the ability to perform massive diagnostic tests suspicious or risky people (such as toilets). The limitation of tests worldwide means that the WHO does not recommend that it be carried out to the entire population, but only to suspected cases.
An article by Badía and Labrador published in EDS-Health Economics establishes that it is necessary to select approved diagnostic tests and combine qualitative diagnoses (Ig A, Ig G) with PCR (which allow to find out the viral load). So we would know exactly what in what epidemiological moment we are in Spain. While we wait for an ISCIII seroprevalence study to be launched that indicates the positive population, Galicia announces that it is launching its own. In this the more information we have, the better.
What is beyond doubt is that either all of humanity is cured, or we cannot say that the pandemic of the century has ended. The first pandemic of pandemics.
American and French aircraft carriers
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Two closed populations, such as the crews of two aircraft carriers, are perfect for your study. The aforementioned article by Badía and Labrador mention that the “Theodore Roosevelt”, with 4,800 crew sailors and after several cases of Covid-19, have found 600 (20%) infected (60% asymptomatically). The French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle also affected by a Covid 19 outbreak with 2,000 seafarers studied, of which 1,100 (55%) were positive (and 50% were asymptomatic) These studies indicate that a high proportion of the population could be asymptomatic or have passed the infection.
Africa and South America
Finally, the major concern of the WHO revolves around regions where the responsiveness of the healthcare system it is more limited, and its quality is not that of Europe, China or the United States. At an early stage, it is not yet known whether the pandemic will develop in the crowded cities of South America. It shares crowding and a warmer temperature with large areas of the African continent, but the epidemiological impact it could have on contagion is unknown.
What is beyond doubt is that either all of humanity is cured, or we cannot say that the pandemic of the century has ended. The first pandemic of pandemics.
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