Three days before the US presidential election, Democratic Party candidate Joe Biden leads most of the key, fluctuating states, according to averaged polls on RealClearPolitics.
Joe Biden
/AFP
The number of votes cast for candidates on a national scale does not decide about winning the US elections. The competitors for the White House are fighting for each state and in most cases the votes in the so-called Electoral College.
Their number depends on the population of the state. Inhabited by nearly 40 million people, California has 55, Idaho with a population of over 1.7 million has four. To win, 270 is needed. In 2016, President Donald Trump, who was running for a second term, won 304 of them.
Most states have such electoral preferences that the result of the presidential election is de facto known before the vote. And so you can blindly predict that, for example, New York will go to the Democrats and South Carolina to the Republicans. The game is therefore about swing states. This year, they include Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Iowa and Arizona. Less commonly Georgia, Texas and Ohio.
The first of these states to close on the election night in Florida (1.30 am from Tuesday to Wednesday, Polish time). RealClearPolitics’ averaged polls give Biden a minimal advantage here on Saturday – by 1.4 points. percentage. Bookmakers in most cases evaluate the chances of 50-50 candidates.
Without 29 electoral votes from Florida, it will be particularly difficult for Trump to win the final victory, according to observers. The Republican, however, counts in this state in the south of the USA on the votes of Americans of Cuban origin, most of whom have a negative attitude towards the economic demands of the Democratic Party.
The results of the so-called The Rust Belt, an industrial area near the Great Lakes that has been a stronghold of the Democrats for years. In 2016, Trump, underestimated in the region by polls, made a sensation here and beat Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Together, these states provide 46 electoral votes.
Trump’s triumph in the Rust Belt four years ago was driven by the high support of white voters, especially those with no college degrees. It is worrying Republicans this year that research shows that Biden does better in this group than Clinton. In Pennsylvania, he has an advantage of 4.3 points on Saturday. %, in Michigan 8.2 points. and in Wisconsin it was 6.3 points. percent – it follows from data from RealClearPolitics
Steve Kornacki, an MSNBC analyst, calculates that if the polls in these three states lowered Trump as in 2016, the incumbent president would lose in Michigan (by 4.3 percentage points) and Pennsylvania (by 1.5 percentage points). .), but retained Wisconsin (by 0.8 percentage points).
In the same way, it is possible to win Trump in North Carolina, the demographic structure of which is considered the pill of America. The battle here is between a provincial loyal to Trump and academia and cities that strongly support Biden.
This year, Democrats also have hope for neighboring Georgia, Georgia, which is traditionally a stronghold of the Republicans. Demographic changes mean that some analysts consider this state as well as Texas and Arizona to be fluctuating. All of these states have record turnout in early voting.
On Saturday in Georgia it is 93.2 percent. in the 2016 final, 107.7 percent in Texas and 86.5 percent in Arizona. This is especially true of suburban areas. In the 2018 mid-term elections, the Democrats recorded considerable gains nationally compared to 2016, which contributed to their victory in the elections to the House of Representatives.
From Washington, Mateusz Obremski (PAP)
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