The Chaos Surrounding the War between Russia and Ukraine: Analysis and Future Scenarios

British intelligence reported that Russia had resumed its attack on Bakhmut because the forces of the Russian Ministry of Defense and the “Wagnerites” resumed cooperation. And this is partly confirmed by the number of references to the Wagner PMC in the propaganda news on Russian TV, which had previously been suspended for a while.

But two topics are the most discussed: the leak of secret Pentagon documents and the Ukrainian counteroffensive. And if first CNN reported that Kyiv was very outraged by the leak of American intelligence data and had already adjusted its plans for its offensive, and Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmihal announced it for the summer during a visit to the United States and Canada, now Newsweek writes, that the counteroffensive is planned for 30 April. Although the Associated Press recently noted that Ukraine did not share plans for a future counteroffensive with the United States because of doubts about Washington’s ability to keep secrets.

The most discussed leak of classified information from the Pentagon has become in America, although it concerns mainly Ukraine. But there is no sensation in these documents. For example, the fact that last fall Russia almost shot down a British reconnaissance aircraft was reported in October 2022 by British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace himself. But now the media for some reason forgot about it, presenting the incident almost as a sensation. Or take Egypt’s intentions secretly supply Russian rockets to multiple launch rocket systems, as reported by The Washington Post last week, and this week, citing previously unknown American intelligence documents, the newspaper writes that Egypt approved the sale of 152-mm and 155-mm artillery shells to the United States for their subsequent transfer to Ukraine.

At the same time, many articles about Ukraine, our counter-offensive and chances of victory appear in the Western press, which very often contradict each other. What is this, the West’s uncertainty about Ukraine’s ability to defeat Russia? Or a game to mislead the enemy? TSN.do understood how the world sees further scenarios for the development of the war.

Date of the counteroffensive

While everyone in the world is thinking about when the counter-offensive of the Ukrainian defense forces can begin, one thing can be stated with certainty – the promised winter-spring offensive by Russia has failed. According to the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense Kirill Budanov, this happened on March 31, 2023. Right now Russia has no offensive capability, so the Kremlin is focusing on two tasks: to hold the captured Ukrainian territories and to thwart our counter-offensive.

At the same time, according to NSDC Secretary Oleksiy Danilov, Ukraine has several options for the development of events at the front at once, so the leak of secret Pentagon documents is unlikely to affect our counteroffensive. The enemy’s targets for the coming months will remain Bakhmut, Marinka and Avdiivka. In the Kherson and Zaporozhye regions, Russian troops are building defensive lines. According to the American Institute for the Study of War, the leader of the Wagnerites, Prigozhin, is restoring Putin’s good graces by again receiving reinforcements and ammunition.

However, regardless of the date of the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, in a recent interview, the head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley, assessed it as a low probability that Ukraine will be able to throw all Russian forces out of its territory this year. However, Millie’s statement is nothing new. He has long been a public skeptic of the absolute victory of Ukraine by military means with access to the internationally recognized borders of 1991.

This is partly confirmed by secret American intelligence documents (if they are true), whichanalyzed again The Washington Post, where it is noted that the war will probably drag on until 2024, because neither side will achieve victory and refuse to negotiate. Hopelessness – this is how the leaked documents describe the most likely scenario that can be expected in a year on the battlefield, which could force Ukraine to even carry out “full mobilization.” Although, unlike the declassified documents of the Pentagon, back in early March, the Japanese publication Nikkei, referring to its own sources regarding the position of China, it reported that the war would end in the summer of 2023.

At the same time, in early March, Alexei Danilov stated that it was impossible to predict the exact timing of the end of the war, because not everything depends on Ukraine, there are other factors, such as the number and timing of deliveries of military equipment from Western partners. If we analyze what retired American generals and experts say and write, one general conclusion can be drawn: this year the war will not end with a complete victory for Ukraine. Is there anything new or sensational about this? No. It’s no secret that Putin has bet on a long war of attrition, hoping that the West will get tired of supporting Ukraine.

At the same time, it is very strange to observe the silence and awkward explanations from Washington why Ukraine has not yet received long-range capabilities, such as ATACAMS missiles up to HIMARS with a range of 300 km, and Western fighters. After all, some American military experts predict that in the near future the Russian military will have an acute shortage of ammunition. And if we had gained an advantage in long-range strength, perhaps the active phase of the war could have ended before the end of 2023.

However, in the West, Firstly, they are very afraid that the Ukrainian defense forces will hit targets inside Russia.

Secondly, this will lead to even greater escalation on the part of Russia, up to the use of tactical nuclear weapons.

Dividing the peace

The Pentagon assures that the leak of secret documents, some of which, according to the White House, was forged, will not affect the level of military support for Ukraine. According to Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov, this is a special disinformation operation – a mixture of truth and lies to undermine trust between the allies. Especially on the eve of the next Ramstein, where, as Air Force speaker Yuri Ignat noted, we are waiting for a decision on the transfer of F-16 fighters. Especially considering the massive use by the enemy of guided bombs on Ukrainian cities.

However, according to US Deputy Secretary of Defense Colin Kahl, Washington could spend all the money on the F-16 (obviously, this means funding provided for military assistance to Ukraine this year – ed.), And these fighters could be adopted by the Armed Forces of Ukraine for one and half year.

“We have an extraordinary amount of money that Congress has allocated in support of the defense of Ukraine (about $ 45 billion – ed.), But it is not limitless,” said Colin Kahl.

Okay, but what about long-range missiles if fighter jets are that expensive? Why can’t Ukraine receive, for example, ATACAMS within this amount of funding? Or, for starters, at least the MQ-9 Reaper drones, one of which was recently shot down by two Russian fighters over the Black Sea? Moreover, the “reapers” of the United States are already incapacitating anyway.

Executive Director of the Mitchell Aerospace Institute Douglas Birkeynotes: “Don’t want to lose Ukraine? Give Kyiv aviation.” In his opinion, and this is contained in the declassified Pentagon documents, Russia’s plot may be to wait until Ukraine has no missiles left for Soviet air defense systems, which will allow Russia to gain air supremacy. In principle, one does not need to be a military analyst or have access to classified information. For the second month in a row, the enemy has been openly talking about this on the air of Russian propaganda channels. They say quite directly there that Ukrainian cities need to be carpet bombed – a second Mariupol.

In an article about the prospects for a Ukrainian counteroffensive, Financial Times notes that his performance may be complicated precisely by the lack of an advantage in the air. Former British armored battalion commander Ben Barry says the classic approach in a land offensive is to break through behind enemy lines in one or more areas and deliver a concentrated strike against the enemy’s center of gravity, but successful examples without air superiority are rare.

“Everyone knows that we have little ammunition – the president and the minister of defense have been talking about this publicly. Since November, it has become obvious to everyone that the next counteroffensive will be concentrated in the south, first on Melitopol, and then on Berdyansk. But regarding the exact location, we we can change a week before the start (counteroffensive – ed.)”, – it was said in article WP April 10, given leaked classified documents.

It is hard not to notice how, against the backdrop of the artificial containment of the United States in supplying Ukraine with more modern and long-range weapons, the West is increasingly talking about the dead end in the war, the uncertainty about the victory of Ukraine, given the prevailing human resources of Russia and the need for negotiations. At first, these were Chinese initiatives that had nothing to do with the world. Now the President of Brazil is accusing the US and the EU of prolonging the war, offering to give Crimea to Russia, to which the Ukrainian Foreign Ministry has already strongly protested.

Most worrying, however, is the possibility of escalating differences between the US and Europe. Edition Politico wrote that the leak of classified documents confused American allies from Europe to the Middle East. Especially against the backdrop of a visit to China by French President Emmanuel Macron, who calls on Europe for greater autonomy from the United States. For this, he was severely criticized by European colleagues. And from the last, according to information Bloomberg, Macron is going to approach China with a plan (structure) that could pave the way for the start of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia this summer.

If everything is as Bloomberg writes, Macron has not abandoned his attempts to save Putin’s face. After all, it is hard to imagine that by the summer Putin will no longer be in power in Russia, and the Russians will start asking for forgiveness en masse, agreeing to a tribunal and reparations. Sometimes it seems that in Europe they are so scared of the possibility of a direct military clash with Russia that they are ready to appease the second “Fuhrer” at the cost of concessions from Ukraine, taking into account human losses and territories. According to The New York Times, NATO even changes their strategy, preparing for hostilities on their borders. Although, perhaps, we should take an example from Poland, which has already begun checking about 230 thousand people liable for military service.

At the same time, we repeat, the West, especially the United States, for some reason does not want Ukraine’s absolute victory over Russia without providing us with long-range weapons, including F-16 fighters. And it’s not hard to guess why. For example, in the second year of a full-scale war, former US Ambassador to Ukraine Steven Pifer, in an article for the Brookings Institution convinces The White House that the United States has limited itself to imaginary red lines for the supply of certain types of weapons to Ukraine, fearing an even greater escalation from Russia.

But we must honestly admit: an even greater escalation is only nuclear weapons. That’s all Putin has left. After its application, the United States will have to enter the war. Therefore, the failure to provide Ukraine with certain types of weapons is the unwillingness of the countries of the nuclear club to take responsibility. However, another option has emerged, which in its Name Jan Brzezinski (son of Zbigniew Brzezinski) and former NATO Deputy Secretary General Alexander Vershbow proposed to NATO leaders:

– Ukraine should be offered security guarantees for those territories that Kyiv will control at the time of the cessation of hostilities with Russia (obviously, including the nuclear umbrella – ed.);

– Instead of the MAP, propose to Ukraine a new Partnership on Deterrence and Defense on the basis of the permanent Ramstein contact group.

All this, according to the authors, will provide security guarantees to Kyiv until there is a consensus within NATO for Ukraine to join NATO. However, this plan does not answer the main question: why does the West see no prospects for the liberation of all Ukrainian territories? At a time when Ukraine insists on NATO membership and security guarantees for the transitional period already now.