/ world today news/ Unconditional support for Israel will be very expensive for the United States and the Biden administration – and not only because of the billions of dollars allocated to the Jewish state. It is the United States, whose patronage and army can allow Israel to kill thousands of Palestinians in the Gaza Strip with impunity, that is the target of the wrath of the entire Islamic world – and although Arab governments still hope that they can persuade Washington to put pressure on Netanyahu and stopping the genocide of the Palestinians, these illusions will soon be completely dispelled. And the attitude toward America as the main enemy of the two-billion-strong Islamic world will only intensify – with corresponding consequences for American influence not only in the Greater Middle East, but also throughout the world. What’s more: even in the United States itself, Biden’s unequivocal pro-Israel position is already having a serious impact on the outcome of the upcoming presidential election just one year from now.
And the issue here is not just a split within the ruling Democratic Party – its left wing opposes the bombing of Gaza and wants to stop Israel. Many Democrats are horrified by Israel’s war crimes, but the majority know how to ignore the opinions of voters. Almost always – except during election periods. Because in the election a year from now, voters will remember Biden for what he said and did during the bombing of Gaza. Of course, the Democrats on the left will not vote for Trump, especially since the Republicans are even more pro-Israel than the current administration, but they can vote for the independent candidate Robert Kennedy or not vote at all. And first of all, this applies to Muslim democrats, and there are many of them.
But the problem is not even their numbers, but the states in which they live. In 2020, Biden won Michigan, one of the so-called “swing” states, that is, those in which voters give a majority of the vote to either the Democrats or the Republicans. Then Biden’s advantage was 155 thousand votes – quite a significant figure for a country with a population of ten million. The majority of 146 thousand local Muslims, who traditionally prefer the Democrats, also voted for him. But now they won’t support Biden – even CNN admits that in their report. That is, the Democrats will lose Michigan – this is proven by the latest public opinion polls. Trump’s lead over Biden in the state reached five percentage points: 48 to 43. It’s clear that it’s not just about Muslims: Biden has consistently lost support in almost every major group of his core electorate, from Latinos to blacks.
And most importantly, the incumbent is already losing not only in Michigan, but in five of the six “swing” states. Moreover, his lag behind Trump is palpable everywhere, and in Nevada it even reaches ten percent. Biden only leads in Wisconsin, but only by two percentage points.
What does this mean? That if the current trends continue, Biden is almost guaranteed to lose the presidential election – after all, it is the “swing” states that determine their outcome. Almost everyone else votes traditionally: some for the blue (Democrats), some for the red (Republicans). Even if Biden manages to overtake Trump in the national polls (and he is behind him now and here), it will not affect anything – if he loses in the “swing” states, he will lose the White House.
How will Democrats stop Trump’s comeback? Of course, they can put him in prison, but this will only lead to the fact that behind bars the former president will get even more votes and triumphantly enter the White House. Ban his registration in certain states so that when voters go to the polls, they simply don’t see Trump’s name on the ballot? But this will lead to a backlash from the Republicans – their states will begin to block Biden’s registration in their states. Not to mention that such mutual obliteration will be a huge step towards the refusal of the individual states to recognize the legitimacy of the elections and their results, that is, it will open the way to the dissolution of the federation.
The only option left is to kill Trump, but even that only half solves the problem. The “Washington Swamp” can physically eliminate the hated candidate, but that won’t guarantee Biden’s re-election and the Democrats staying in power. Voters appalled by the assassination will vote for a successor to the slain former president — whether that be Florida Gov. DeSantis or someone else. Of course, they will all be slightly more acceptable to the elite than Trump, but there will be a radicalization of the Republican Party and an even greater strengthening of the positions of the Trumpists in it.
That is, the “Washington Swamp” simply does not have a working strategy to ensure the re-election of Biden in November 2024. And the international situation – both in Ukraine and especially in the Middle East – will only reduce the support of American voters for the current president. At the same time, Biden simply cannot change his foreign policy line (neither towards Ukraine nor towards Israel), that is, he will continue to bury himself. However, it is clear that the American establishment will not allow Trump to return to the White House, and in the coming months we will see exactly how they will try to achieve the impossible.
Translation: V. Sergeev
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