It has been almost two months since Russia invaded Ukraine, and now they are said to have taken the strategically important city of Mariupol.
But according to AFP, they have no control over the Azovstal steelworks. Over 2000 Ukrainian soldiers and 1000 civilians must be inside the facility.
The soldiers will refuse to surrender, and according to Sky News was the message from President Vladimir Putin that the facility should be stormed. He drew that message, and instead he has ordered that it be blocked, so that nothing comes in or out of it.
– BENEFIT PUTIN: Researcher Jakub Godzimirski says it will benefit Putin if more Russian soldiers come home – alive. Photo: Sveinung Kyte / TV 2
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The message that the steelworks will not be stormed anyway, there is one reason in particular, says researcher Jakub M. Godzimirski at the Norwegian Institute of Foreign Policy (Nupi) to TV 2.
Win Putin
“Putin wants to save the lives of Russian soldiers so that they can continue the siege,” he said.
– Storming the steelworks will first and foremost lead to large losses on the Russian side. What is important from Putin’s point of view is to get soldiers back to Russia, the researcher continues.
Bringing soldiers home will benefit Putin’s position as president in the long run, he says.
Godzimirski explains that the more soldiers who return home, the greater the chance that the “military operation” that Russia calls the invasion will be perceived as successful by Russian citizens.
– IN SMOKE: The Azovstal steelworks in Mariupol. It is estimated that more than 1,000 civilians and 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers are there. The picture is from April 18. Photo: Mariupol City Council / AFP / NTB
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Senior defense analyst Per Erik Solli in Nupi agrees with his colleague Godzimirski that Russia is stopping attacking the Ukrainian force that is left to save its own.
“Russia has experienced through the war that the will to defend is so high among Ukrainian soldiers that they suffer heavy losses,” he says.
– SAVE OWN: Per Erik Solli also believes Putin is dropping the attack to protect his own soldiers. Photo: Roy Arne Salater / TV 2
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He also points to another reason why he thinks the Russians are dropping the attack on the steelworks; May 9.
On this date, Russia celebrated the victory over Nazi Germany during World War II and is symbolically important to the country.
– Russia will probably announce that they have achieved something. If they are still in contention, it is difficult to sell Mariupol as a victory. Therefore, it is better that they now, a while before May 9, declare that they have taken the city and do not storm the steelworks, says Solli.
The defense analyst says that Russia has lost more soldiers in Ukraine after almost two months than after many years in Afghanistan.
– The longer they are in Ukraine, the more they will lose. Until now, the Russian leadership has hidden from its own people that they are losing many on the ground. There are limits to how long they can hide it and where that breaking point goes, says Solli.
– MAP: Map of Ukraine of where the battles are, and where Russia should have control. Photo: TV 2
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Two choices
According to Sky News, Putin has also said that he guarantees the lives of the Ukrainians who want to leave the steelworks, and that these should be treated with respect.
The mayor of Mariupol said on Thursday afternoon that it is not possible to evacuate civilians from the facility because there has been no agreement on a ceasefire.
Solli says that there have been several examples of Russia saying that they have established so-called humanitarian corridors, without them becoming anything.
– AS PLANNED: Spokesman for Russian President Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Peskov, says the Russian military operation in Ukraine is continuing as planned. Photo: SPUTNIK / Reuters / NTB
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There have also been reports during the war that civilians who are then evacuated will be taken to Russia.
No later than Thursday quotes The Guardian Ukraine’s ombudsman for human rights, Ljudmyla Denisova, said that Russia had taken 134,000 people from Mariupol, and that 33,000 of them were deported by force.
She has also previously stated that Ukrainian civilians and soldiers have been subjected to severe violence.
The allegations have not been confirmed independently.
– That they will evacuate civilians and besiege rather than attack the remaining Ukrainian forces, I do not think until I see it, Solli says.
The defense analyst says that if the Ukrainian forces in the steelworks surrender, they could face a brutal fate.
– If they surrender, they can face a cruel fate, at least when you see how they have approached Ukrainians otherwise. They may have the choice; die in battle or be tortured and treated harshly as prisoners, he says.
Also read: – Not even a fly lets in or out
That is why the city is important
Mariupol has been under massive attack for several weeks and has been virtually bombed out after two months of war.
Mariupol has been an important goal for Russia – and important for Ukraine to keep. There are three reasons why the city is important, according to Jakub Godzimirski.
- Mariupol is located in Donetsk Oblast, part of Ukraine, which is partly controlled by the breakaway republic, which wants to gain control of the whole county.
- The city is located between the Crimean peninsula and the Donbas, which makes it easier for Russia to travel between the two areas.
- Symbolically important city, both for Ukraine and Russia. For Russia, it is about showing at home that they have won, for Ukraine, victories are important, among other things, to keep fighting morale up.
In the future, Godzimirski believes that Ukraine will work to maintain control of the border between the breakaway republics and Ukraine controlled parts of the counties of Donetsk and Luhansk.
Defense analyst Solli says that if there is a long-term siege of the steel plant in Mariupol, it will also be very resource-intensive. Thus, they can not move forces to other places in Eastern Ukraine, where important battles are taking place.
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