The corona figures continue to go in the right direction, but with the falling figures, a Walloon is very much exposed again. Much less testing is done in the south of the country, so that many infections are not detected.
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Ireland, Iceland, Finland and Norway are the only European countries where the number of detected corona infections is proportionally lower than our country. With daily average of 2,208 reported infections in the past seven days, the incidence is now seven times lower than during the peak of the second wave at the end of October. Although the number of positive cases is declining less quickly than in recent weeks, national corona fighter Steven Van Gucht is satisfied. ‘The figures are still going in the right direction.’
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The number of infections detected on Friday was 24 percent lower than a week ago, while that decrease percentage was above 40 percent until recently. Because the schools have reopened after an extended autumn break, more people have contact with each other again, which partly explains the delay. Although the modified testing strategy seems to be a more important explanation. High-risk contacts have been tested again without symptoms since 23 November. About 10 percent of these have a positive result.
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We knew the decline in positive tests would slow down through the quarantine period, but it is important that there is still a decline.
Steven Van Gucht
National corona fighter
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Those who have been in close contact with someone who has tested positive for corona will be asked to go into quarantine. A corona test follows after seven days. If it is negative, the isolation is lifted. Due to this one-week quarantine period, the impact of the modified testing strategy is only now becoming apparent in the corona figures. “We knew that this would slow down the decline in the number of positive tests, but it is important that there is still a decline,” says Van Gucht.
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No difference between federal states
Over the past three months, the number of positive tests has been systematically higher in Wallonia and Brussels. During the second wave, the number of reported daily corona cases in Flanders never rose above 100 per 100,000 inhabitants. In Brussels, there were 200 positive tests per 100,000 inhabitants every day in the last days of October, in Wallonia that number even climbed above 250.
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While the number of infections declined across the country, the gap between the states narrowed. In the past seven days, 22 out of 100,000 Flemish and Brussels residents have tested positive for corona every day. In Wallonia, with 26 positive cases per 100,000 inhabitants every day, there were hardly any more. An important nuance is that much more testing is done in Flanders. In the past week, nearly 300 corona tests per 100,000 inhabitants have been administered daily. In Wallonia and Brussels respectively 193 and 186 tests, a lot less.
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The differences are even greater at the provincial level. In proportion, twice as many tests are carried out in West Flanders as in Liège, nevertheless for a long time the province that was most affected by corona. The more tests, the more likely positive cases will be detected. It’s like fishing: the bigger the net, the more chance of catching it.
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Size of the net
For that reason, virologists like to look at the positivity ratio, the ratio of the number of positive cases to the total number of tests. For example, the catch is corrected for the size of the net. The higher that number, the more virus is circulating. In Flanders, 7.5 percent of the tests were positive in the past week. In the capital, the positivity ratio is 12 percent and south of the language border at 13.5 percent a lot higher. Only under 5 percent can one speak of a verifiable situation, according to the World Health Organization.
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For weeks, more tests have been carried out in Flanders than in Wallonia.
Steven Van Gucht.
National corona fighter.
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‘For weeks, more tests have been carried out in Flanders than in Wallonia,’ says Van Gucht. ‘For that reason we can say that the stronger decrease in the number of infections in Wallonia is not a result of the test strategy, but a real phenomenon.’
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It is a matter of guesswork as to why less testing is done in Wallonia, because the rules are basically the same. In practice, it may be easier to get a test in Flanders than in Wallonia. Flemish Minister of Welfare Wouter Beke (CD&V) points out that Flanders has provided more testing capacity than has been officially requested. The fact that Flemish people are more inclined to have themselves tested than Walloons can also play a role.
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The test gap between Flanders on the one hand and Brussels and Wallonia on the other has been greater than ever in recent weeks. To get the corona epidemic under control, the number of tests in Brussels and Wallonia must be increased. Otherwise, the situation threatens to repeat in September. Certainly in Brussels and Liège, the number of established infections rose quickly. But many infections probably also remained under the radar, so that the seriousness of the situation only became clear too late. The late response in Liège and Brussels is one of the reasons why our country was so badly hit by the second wave.
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